Australia's property market is in a bubble, but when will it pop?

by AB03 Jul 2015
A major investment bank has joined the discussion about the state of the Australian property market.

In a new report comparing past price rises and corrections to current conditions, investment bank UBS believes it has identified bubble characteristics in Australian markets and what will cause any bubble to burst.

According to the bank, rising interest rates caused price corrections in the Australian market in 2003, 2007 and 2010 and would do so again, however it predicts that won’t occur in the near future.

“Overall, housing is showing some bubble-like features, but it lacks a trigger to pop it near-term,” UBS senior economist George Tharenou said.

“Those downturns were only triggered when the RBA hiked, historically the key catalyst for housing approvals to peak is RBA rate hikes; not excess supply or unemployment,” Tharenou said.

The UBS report predicts any correction wouldn’t happen for two to three years, putting their forecast in line with that of BIS Shrapnel who believe property prices will slow over 2016-17.

UBS also highlighted that Australia’s house price to income ratio is sitting at 5.5, which is similar to the peaks seen before the corrections in 2003, 2007 and 2010.

UBS’s claims come in the same day CoreLogic RP Data released information revealing Australian homes experienced capital growth of almost 10% over the 2014/15 financial year.
 

COMMENTS

  • by Yawn... 3/07/2015 10:00:31 AM

    Again....the inner Melbourne & inner Sydney markets. Most of Australia is seeing very little growth, & some states are seeing a decline in values. Maybe a geography lesson about what makes up Australia, wouldn't go astray.