Has house price growth finally hit a ceiling?

by Julia Corderoy04 Nov 2014
Home values across Australia’s capital cities have edged up 1% over October, according to RP Data’s CoreLogic Home Value Index, although the result was largely buoyed by the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

Despite combined capital city home values increasing by 1% over the month, the story is quite different when looking at the data on a state-by-state basis. According to the Index, only three out of the eight capital cities actually recorded an increase in dwelling values. Melbourne recorded the strongest increase (+1.9%), followed by Sydney (+1.3%) and Brisbane (+0.6%).

The five remaining capital cities all experienced decreases in home values. Hobart experienced the largest decrease (-2.4%), followed by Canberra (-2.3%), Adelaide (-1.1%), Darwin (-1.4%) and Perth (-0.1%).

Over the quarter to October, dwelling values rose by 2.2%, but only half of the capital cities actually recorded an increase in values over this period. According to Tim Lawless, research director at RP Data, this result highlights weaker housing market conditions outside of Australia’s largest cities.

“Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide – which happen to be four of the five largest capital cities – were the only capital cities to record an increase in home values over the past three months. Sydney continues as a standout with home values increasing at a rate of more than 1% a month, up 3.9% over the past three months. Perth and Canberra have clearly moved through the peak of their growth cycles,” he said.

Comparing year on year, all eight capital cities experienced capital growth, although Lawless says it is clear that house price growth is beginning to stagnate. 

“Looking at the increase in home values over the 12 months to October, it is clear that the rate of capital growth is continuing to moderate. Despite the annual rate of value growth slowing, all capital cities have still recorded an increase in home values over the past year. Home values across the combined capital cities have increased by 8.9% over the twelve months ending October ‘14, which has slowed from a peak of 11.5% in April of this year,” he said.