Job ads cut against rate case

by Adam Smith07 Feb 2012

A strengthening job market could work against today's anticipated rate cut.

The ANZ Job Ad series has shown the largest rise in job advertising in nearly a year. The total number of job ads on the internet and in newspapers shot up 6% in January, but ANZ has warned that it may be too early to draw a trend from the numbers.

"We remain mindful of the usual problem of significant volatility in the monthly data over the December/January holiday period, which the seasonal adjustment process often has trouble adequately capturing," the bank said.

But ANZ said trends across November could indicate a stabilisation in the jobs market across the larger east coast states, while mining states continue to strengthen. While most economists are calling for a rate cut when the RBA meets today, ANZ has pushed this back to March, and said this may be the lone cut of the year.

"Beyond March, if we see further confirmation that job ads have stabilised, this will likely be important for monetary policy expectations. In particular, we will be less likely to see further interest rate cuts and the market will need to remove some of the aggressive easing profile built into rate curves," the bank said.

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