There’s no such thing as “the Australian property market,” says property market commentator Terry Ryder in an article published this week in Property Observer - and investors need to stop viewing it as anything other than a collection of separate geographical trends.
“Some markets [within Australia] have boomed, some have gone down moderately, some have stagnated, some have gone a little backwards and some have gone into reverse rapidly.”
Ryder says anyone who claims to be able to predict what the nation’s property market will look like in 2013 is a “charlatan,” since it depends so much on where in Australia you’re talking about.
“Next year, more than ever, the market will be highly segmented…We’ve seen some recovery in capital city prices, we’ve seen an improvement in consumer sentiment and we’ve had a sixth interest rate cut - but there will not be a uniform movement in markets [next year].”
That said, Ryder believes there's strong evidence that Perth and Darwin will continue their upward trends, Sydney and Brisbane will experience a “solid increase,” and Adelaide will see moderate improvement.
Canberra, on the other hand, is likely to remain stagnant and Melbourne and Hobart will both, according to Ryder, continue their downward trends.
However, even within the main cities, Ryder says there will be variation. Factors including new infrastructure will likely play a part.
Ryder's comments follow recent speculations that plans to build a light rail system between the Sydney CBD and the University of NSW, which experts predict will increase house values along the route - an example of how localised changes within a larger geographical area can effect niche property markets.