Slowing population growth to dent housing demand

by Adam Smith27 Jun 2014
Population growth has stalled, which could dent future housing demand.

New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Australia’s population increased by just over 396,000 new residents over the 2013 calendar year, down 9,300 from the annual period ending June 2013. RP Data research director Tim Lawless said population growth statistics serve as an important indicator of housing demand.

Lawless said population growth has been winding down since mid-last year, though at 1.7% per annum, it remains well above average. 

On a state-by-state basis, NSW has seen the largest increase, followed by Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. Both NSW and Victoria also saw a healthy upward trend in overseas migration, but WA and Queensland are seeing dwindling numbers of overseas migrants. Lawless put the decrease down to the slowdown of the resources sector. 

Overall, Lawless predicted a slowdown in population growth could impact future housing demand.

“With population growth winding down we can expect some further easing of housing demand, both from a sales and a rental perspective. The slowdown seems to be most pronounced in the mining states of WA and Qld where population growth conditions have previously been the strongest,” Lawless said.

COMMENTS

  • by VivKay 27/06/2014 9:20:52 AM

    At least this is an acknowledgement of what's driving our politically-engineered third world rate of population growth - to keep the housing bubble inflated! It's blowing up a great big Ponzi scheme, that can't be maintained forever. The benefits of population growth are private, but the costs are socialised - and we all pay!

  • by Andrew Smith 27/06/2014 5:19:59 PM

    Population figures used include temporaries i.e. international students and 2nd year backpackers under the net overseas migration definition (12/16+ months in Oz).

    Whether population (growth) is perceived as high or low, most people still don't realise the majority 'immigrants' will not buy property (but rent) and will return home.