NAB backs assessment that property market is near peak

Major lender suggests that we should expect a slowdown into 2022

NAB backs assessment that property market is near peak


By Mike Wood

NAB has come out in support of CoreLogic’s assessment that the property market is at or near its peak.

CoreLogic’s most recent Home Value Index, released this morning, suggested that the slower growth in November of 1.3% suggests that the market is close to an apex.

November was the slowest month since January, and CoreLogic analyst Tim Lawless suggest that it was due to the main drivers of the market slowing.

“Virtually every factor that has driven housing values higher has lost some potency over recent months,” he said. “Fixed mortgage rates are rising, higher listings are taking some urgency away from buyers, affordability has become a more substantial barrier to entry and credit is less available.”

NAB were the first of the Big Four to back this assessment, with Andy Kerr, executive home ownership, releasing a statement that predicted an easing of prices into 2022.

“We are seeing the early signs of house prices easing as supply comes back on to the market,” he said.

“In October, we saw Melbourne and Sydney both ease month-on-month and from their peak growth in March. NAB’s forecast is for the market to be strong until the end of the year and a more subdued market in 2022.”

“We see house prices up around 25 per cent in 2021 and around five per cent in 2022. When we include unit prices, the numbers are around 23 per cent for dwellings in 2021 and around five per cent in 2022.”

“Suburbs closer to the city, with easing prices will become an option that we really haven’t seen to the same extent the last 12 months. We are seeing little green shoots of people returning to inner-city suburbs, looking for the balance of lifestyle and value.”

“Unit prices have been more subdued than houses and because CBDs are opening, people can see the lure of the CBD, particularly younger buyers. The lure of being close to the CBD and all the lifestyle that offers and the value in an apartment, we are seeing the balance is starting to tip back.”

“We’re also seeing families seeking space, young and older families, where the outer suburbs are starting to hold an appeal because they can get more value for larger properties. We also know that proximity to good amenities is still the dominant consideration for Australians when they are looking to buy.

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