Your clients stretching to $1 million are asking a reasonable question: is it still worth it? The short answer from Herron Todd White's June 2026 Month in Review is yes — but the gap between what they expect and what that budget actually delivers has never been wider.
Housing inflation is running at 6.5% annually to May 2026, according to ABS data, making it the single largest contributor to Australia's CPI — and the single largest reason why a seven-figure budget no longer signals premium buying power in most major capitals.
"A seven-figure budget has rapidly shifted from a luxury purchase to the new baseline for standard family homes in most of our major capital cities," says HTW national director Chris Hinchliffe (pictured left).
The forces behind that shift — chronic undersupply, above-average immigration, and population growth that continues to outpace construction — are not unwinding any time soon.
The answer varies significantly by city and product type, which matters when you're structuring a loan.
In Sydney, the lower-quartile rose 1.5% in the three months to April — propped up by the federal government's 5% deposit scheme — while the top quarter fell 2.7%. A million dollars there now generally buys a house on the outer fringe or a unit in an inner-ring location; clients expecting a detached home in a middle-ring suburb will likely need a conversation about trade-offs.
Melbourne is the relative bright spot: several suburbs that previously sat above $1 million have dropped below it, which may suit upgrader clients who have been waiting on the sideline.
Brisbane's inner-ring attached housing remains strongly contested, and in Perth the market has shifted so decisively that $1 million is now the standard benchmark for a metropolitan family home — or merely the entry point for a unit in a prime, blue-chip location.
At the prestige end, HTW's national Prestige Index remained at 61 out of 100 in June, unchanged from May but down from 66 at the monitor's February launch. Sydney and Melbourne both sit at 40, in "balanced" territory, while Perth surged to 80. Adelaide set a new residential price record for the city — $15.5 million at Medindie in May — even as its index eased from 75 to 70.
For brokers with high-net-worth clients, softer Sydney and Melbourne prestige conditions mean longer selling periods and tighter bridging timelines. That resilience at the top end, however, sits against a more challenging macro backdrop for the broader market.
Three cash rate increases in 2026 and the newly passed negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms have already dented confidence. The inflation picture makes a near-term rate reversal unlikely.
Australia's headline CPI eased to 4% annually in May, but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure moved the wrong way — rising to 3.6% from 3.4% in April, still well above the target band. That divergence is critical for serviceability conversations: headline CPI falling does not mean borrowing capacity is improving.
HTW CEO Peter Maloney (pictured right) noted that the rise in underlying inflation suggests policymakers will remain cautious about rate cuts any time soon.
On the tax reform question, HTW's view is that the damage will be targeted rather than broad.
"While these reforms will likely dampen near-term investor enthusiasm, above-average immigration and a stubborn failure to hit dwelling construction targets mean price impacts are likely to be targeted to specific products in specific locations," the report states.
Investor clients in high-density urban markets — where negative gearing has historically done the most work — are most exposed. Owner-occupier dominated markets and tightly held regional centres are less vulnerable.
Maloney has separately noted that Australia's inflation challenge is increasingly linked to housing supply constraints, reinforcing that the structural floor under prices is unlikely to give way even as policy headwinds build.
For first-home buyer clients, the sub-$1-million-unit market in Sydney remains active, supported by government deposit schemes, and inner-ring Brisbane continues to offer genuine capital growth prospects in the attached dwelling space. Regional markets from Townsville to Toowoomba still present real value at this price point for clients willing to move beyond the major capitals. For investor clients with a $1 million budget, HTW flags an interesting case study in Mildura: splitting the budget across two properties in the $480,000–$520,000 range can deliver better rental diversification and yield than a single purchase, a structure worth modelling for clients who are open to a portfolio approach.
The overarching message from HTW is strategic rather than alarming: "Ultimately, parking a lazy million today isn't necessarily about buying a trophy asset outright; it's a strategic game of choosing between Sydney's resilient lower-tier units, Brisbane's high-demand inner fringes, Perth's tightly held family footprint or maybe what is starting to look like value for money in Melbourne."
With underlying inflation sticky, rate relief uncertain, and tax reform now law, the brokers best placed to add value right now are those who can translate that strategic map into a specific recommendation for a specific client. The data to have that conversation is now in front of you.
Download HTW's full June 2026 Month in Review for the complete city-by-city breakdown and regional analysis.
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