ANZ has become the last of Australia's big four banks to forecast RBA rate cuts, shifting from a prolonged hold position to expecting two 0.25 percentage point cuts in 2027 that would take the cash rate to 3.85%.
The update means all four major banks are now forecasting cuts — but beyond that consensus, the big four could hardly be further apart.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said Tuesday's decision was all but settled.
"The Reserve Bank is almost certain to leave the cash rate on hold next Tuesday for the first time in 2026," Tindall said.
But the picture beyond Tuesday is sharply divided.
"The big four now all have pencilled in cash rate cuts, but they're still a long way from singing from the same song sheet. Westpac still expects the RBA to hike rates twice more before Christmas," Tindall said.
Three of the four major banks — CBA, NAB, and ANZ — expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026. Westpac is the outlier, maintaining its forecast for two further hikes in August and September before cuts eventually arrive, though not until 2028. That puts Westpac a full year behind its peers on the timing of relief for borrowers.
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Tindall was direct about what the divergence signals.
"This divide highlights just how uncertain the economic outlook remains. Inflation is still well above the Reserve Bank's target band and global tensions are still elevated, keeping the board firmly in wait-and-see mode," she said.
Against that backdrop, Canstar has modelled what a further hike would mean in dollar terms for broker clients.
On a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining, a single 0.25 percentage point increase in August — in line with Westpac's forecast — would add $92 to monthly repayments. Across a hypothetical four hikes for the year — February, March, May, and a further increase in August — the cumulative monthly increase would reach $364. For a $1 million loan, the equivalent cumulative hit would be $606 per month.
The repayment impact is only part of the picture — the borrowing capacity effect is equally significant for broker clients. Canstar analysis shows the cumulative reduction in borrowing capacity from the 2026 hikes so far is roughly $25,000 for a single average-income borrower and $49,000 for a couple — and if the RBA lifts again, the total hit could reach $37,000 for an individual and $73,000 for a dual-income household.
Tindall's message to borrowers — and by extension the brokers advising them — was unambiguous.
"If you've got a mortgage, make sure you're still preparing for further hikes until inflation gets well and truly back into the highly evasive target band," she said.
Tuesday's RBA meeting will be the first real test of whether the hold is as firm as three of the four major banks expect — and the decision will set the tone for client conversations well into 2027.
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