ANZ fires fixed-rate warning shot ahead of RBA call

ANZ has pushed most of its sharpest fixed mortgage rates above 6%, sending a clear signal that the next phase of the rate cycle may be under way.

The move lands just days before the Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision, tightening conditions for first-home buyers, upgraders, and property investors looking to manage repayment risk.

According to Canstar, ANZ has increased fixed rates by up to 0.25 percentage points, leaving only its lowest one‑year fixed rate under the 6% mark at 5.99%. Across the big four, NAB now holds the lowest one‑year fixed rate at 5.74%, with Westpac at 5.79% and CBA at 6.19%.

“ANZ has jumped the gun on the RBA, lifting fixed rates just four days out from the central bank’s next decision,” Canstar.com.au data insights director Sally Tindall said.

Tindall added that “fixed rates are typically the early warning signal for where rates are headed. When they start creeping up before an RBA meeting, it’s a sign lenders are pricing in a hike before it materialises.”

That view is being echoed by markets, with economists at Westpac, NAB, CBA, and ANZ now tipping another cash rate rise at the RBA’s 16–17 March meeting.

Rate expectations are being shaped by persistent price pressures, with annual headline CPI holding at 3.8% in January and trimmed mean inflation edging up to 3.4%, still above RBA’s 2%–3% target band and keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates and funding costs.

Competitive fixed deals rapidly disappearing

ANZ is not alone. Canstar’s rate tracking shows 26 lenders, including Bankwest, ubank, Heritage Bank, and RACQ, have lifted at least one fixed rate in the past fortnight. The average two‑year fixed rate is now around 0.21 percentage points higher than the average variable rate, reversing the position at the start of the year when the two sat roughly in line.

The sharpest fixed deals in the market are also edging higher. The lowest fixed rate on Canstar’s database is 5.24% from Southern Cross Credit Union for one‑ or two‑year terms. Just four lenders are still offering at least one fixed rate below 5.4%, down from 62 at the beginning of the year, narrowing options for borrowers trying to lock in lower mortgage rates.

Brokers urged to steady nervous fix‑curious clients

Tindall warned that the rate moves and rising inflation expectations could prompt more borrowers to consider fixing.

“If that’s you, don’t panic,” she said. “Walk through the decision with a calm and clear head, noting the risks on both sides and the extra rules and restrictions that come with locking in your rate.”

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