Australian capital cities are now collectively losing 24 affordable houses every single day, according to Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured).
“While the unit market is adding 1.5 affordable properties daily, this growth falls far short of offsetting house losses – creating a net reduction of nearly 23 affordable homes daily,” Conisbee said in a Ray White analysis.
For this analysis, “affordable” was defined as being priced under $750,000. Analysis of all properties sold for under this price across Australia's nine capital cities between 2015 and 2025 shows the net impact across all property types.
Sydney tops the list with 7.1 affordable properties disappearing daily, followed by Brisbane (5) and Melbourne (3.6). Smaller markets are also seeing significant declines – the Gold Coast loses 2.5 daily, Adelaide 2.1, and Canberra and Hobart about 0.7 each. Darwin is the sole capital showing growth, adding 0.3 affordable properties daily.
Looking specifically at houses, “Sydney loses 5.8 affordable houses daily – equivalent to one house vanishing from the affordable market every four hours,” Conisbee said.
Brisbane follows closely at 5.5 per day, while Melbourne sheds 5.1. Perth loses 2.7 affordable houses daily, Adelaide 2.2, the Gold Coast 1.7, Canberra 0.9, and Hobart 0.5. Darwin also bucks the trend here, adding 0.2 affordable houses daily.
“At current trajectories, Sydney's mathematical path leads to zero affordable houses by 2027,” Conisbee said, adding that Brisbane and Melbourne’s rapid daily losses point to similar endpoints within the decade.
Conisbee said the decline stems from “multiple converging factors”.
Rising construction costs – which peaked at 17.8% annually in 2022 – have pushed new housing beyond affordable thresholds. Chronic undersupply continues to see demand outstrip stock, while some government first-home buyer schemes “paradoxically inflate prices by increasing buyer purchasing power without addressing supply constraints.”
These pressures are being felt even as interest rates fall. CBA economists Luke Yeaman and Lucinda Jerogin noted that national home prices have already risen 3.1% since the RBA’s first 2025 rate cut in February.
“Housing affordability remains a significant challenge for homebuyers, especially first-home buyers,” the economists said. They warned that despite the forecast improvement from lower rates and rising incomes, affordability will remain tight – with the median house price to disposable income ratio sitting at 7.9, one of the highest globally.
While some capitals have seen sharp growth in affordable unit sales – Perth (+105%) and Darwin (+71%) – national gains of 1.5 affordable units per day offset just 6% of house losses.
Even markets with strong unit growth like Melbourne (+1.5 daily) and Perth (+1.1 daily) cannot match their respective house losses of 5.1 and 2.7.
Nationally, Australia is losing nearly 23 affordable properties daily when houses and units are combined, the Ray White analysis showed.
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