Australian homes are on track for a six‑figure price jump over the next five years as the nation falls well short of housing construction goals, according to the Herald Sun, reporting on Propertybuyer’s Australian Property Market Outlook 2026‑2030.
The report estimates Australia could undershoot National Housing Accord targets by as much as 462,000 homes. The Accord aims to deliver 1.2 million new dwellings by mid‑2029, but the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows just 193,000 approvals in the most recent 12‑month period.
On current trends, the report projects dwelling prices – across houses, units, townhouses, and apartments – will surge about 30% in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin over the next five years.
That would see PropTrack’s median value for Brisbane rise from $1.013 million to $1.317 million by the end of 2031.
In Adelaide, values are tipped to climb about $272,000 to $1.18 million over the same period. Perth’s typical dwelling value is forecast to jump another $285,000 on top of today’s $950,000, while Darwin is projected to gain about $173,000 to top $750,000.
In Sydney, the $1.24 million typical home is expected to rise 25% to $1.55 million, with the report indicating the typical house price will surpass $2.22 million. Melbourne home values are forecast to gain just under $240,000 (28%), going from $854,000 to about $1.093 million, with the median house price potentially reaching $1.4 million by the end of 2030.
With Australia’s population projected to reach 31.5 million by 2035–36 and still growing by more than 300,000 people a year while new builds lag national targets, the housing shortfall and pressure on prices are expected to intensify.
Propertybuyer founder Rich Harvey (pictured) said growth of 25–30% in major capitals would deepen the divide between Australians who already own property and those trying to get in.
Noting a first‑home buyer surge alongside the expansion of the federal government’s 5% deposit home buying scheme late last year, Harvey said it was clear that people could see “the wave coming”.
“The only way the buyers can go into these markets is with generational wealth,” he said.
“Housing scarcity is now baked into the system,” he said. “Migration and household formation continue to run ahead of new construction while capacity constraints are holding back development.
“Even if building activity accelerates, the gap will not close quickly. This has far-reaching implications for affordability, rents, and investment.”
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