With the federal election just days away, the stakes for Australia's property market are rising almost as fast as house prices.
In the lead-up to the May 3 elections, political frontrunners — including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the Labor party, who is up for re-election, and Peter Dutton, who is leading the Liberal party — have unveiled a flurry of promises aimed at winning voter support, many of which could directly impact Australia's property markets.
Pledges include to fast-tracking tradie certifications to accelerate home building, as well as introducing new tax breaks for small businesses. These incentives are designed to both bolster economic activity and ease pressure on the housing sector. But they also signal borrowers' increasing concerns about housing supply and economic growth. Market players say some borrowers may even be holding off until after the election to buy.
While a short-term pause in the property market pre-election is nothing new — many prospective buyers and sellers prefer to wait until the political dust settles before making major financial decisions — this is usually short-lived. Once the results are in, the market tends to regain momentum.
But could 2025 prove different, as borrowers try to ease their anxieties over a housing shortage, inflation and an increasing cost of living?
"What seems to happen before an election is people wait to see what happens; it can get people to press pause on things," Daniel O'Brien, founder and mortgage broker at New South Wales-based PFS Financial Services, told Australian Broker.
"But in saying that, last week was the busiest week we've had in new applications in months," O'Brien said. "The writing is on the wall that Labor's [out] going, which is going to be good for the property market. There's a lot of sentiment at the moment that the Labor [party] needs to get out. The Liberals need to get back in to get [the markets] going in the right direction again. If that happens, and if the Liberals get in, that's going to make [momentum in] the property market go up."
Christian Stevens, founder and mortgage broker at Flint Group, also said business has been consistent in the run up to the polls.
"Normally around election time you see a bit of uncertainty creep into the property market … while people wait for clarity on any big policy changes," Stevens explained. "This time around, though, it feels different: buyer demand has stayed really strong.
"Refinances are also really strong right now, and we expect that to ramp up even more once we start seeing rate cuts come through," he added. "A lot of borrowers are positioning themselves early to make the most of any savings."
Meanwhile, fast-tracking tradies could help ease the construction bottleneck. But it's not an overnight fix. At the same time, offering more incentives to buyers could add even more heat to already competitive markets if supply doesn’t keep up.
But ultimately, while elections create noise and short-term hesitations, the broader economic settings — including interest rates, wage growth and supply-demand fundamentals — will be the real forces shaping Australia's property market trajectory in the years ahead. Policies around tax incentives, housing grants or first-home buyer schemes could stoke demand in the short term, potentially pushing prices even higher in some markets.
O'Brien said the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) May 19-20 meeting on monetary policy will likely have the biggest influence on the property markets.
"Interest rates have obviously already come down, and are going to come down some more," he said. "[A rate cut] is already getting spoken about; it's essentially a given. That's linked to why last week was the busiest week that I've had in months. Because people are already expecting it. So that's leading towards a lot of positive sentiment."
But rate cuts also come with long-term consequences.
"Whenever rates go down in this country, [property] prices always go up," O'Brien said. "So what people can get for a million dollars today is going to be more than what it will be in six months' time. Because in six months, 100% it will be more expensive. Prices might be 5% to 10% higher.
"Essentially, my advice to people is, if you're thinking about doing something in the next six to 12 months, do it now," he said. "A lot of people already have that awareness. So there's a lot of people trying to get in [the market] before that happens."
