Australia's auction market staged a modest recovery this week, with the combined capitals preliminary clearance rate rising to 58.2% from the post-budget low of 57.5% recorded a week earlier — a figure that revised sharply lower to 50.4% on final numbers.
The bounce is real but fragile: the early clearance rate has now held below 60% for six of the past eight weeks, and the deeper data on buyer behaviour suggests the softness runs well beyond headline rates.
The most telling signal this week came not from clearance rates but from open home attendance. Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured left) noted that national attendance averaged just 2.1 attendees per property — broadly flat on last week but less than two-thirds of the 3.5 recorded at the same point last year. That foot traffic gap, which opened sharply in the weeks following the federal budget, has not closed.
"The federal budget changes, higher interest rates and broader uncertainty appear to be weighing most heavily at the inspection stage," Conisbee said.
While Cotality's combined capitals rate edged up to 58.2%, Ray White's national clearance rate fell to 51.7% — down from 56.5% a week ago and well below the 67.4% recorded a year earlier — reflecting the more selective buyer pool Conisbee's open home data describes. Average active bidders held at 2, only fractionally below last week's 2.1, suggesting those who do show up remain engaged — but the pool of people willing to inspect in the first place has contracted materially.
The gap between cities widened further this week, with Adelaide and Melbourne holding up while Brisbane posted its weakest result in over two years. Adelaide recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 72% across 135 auctions — by far the highest of any capital, though easing from 75.7% a week prior. Perth and Adelaide continue to show more resilience than the larger eastern capitals, according to Conisbee.
Sydney's result was more encouraging than the previous week's shock — the preliminary rate lifted to 56.9% from an early reading of 49.2% (which revised to 43.1% on final numbers) — but at 56.9% it remains a soft outcome, with the early clearance rate holding below 60% in eight of the past nine weeks. Some 823 homes went to auction, up sharply on the prior week's 619. Melbourne's preliminary rate eased slightly to 60.2% from 61.4% a week earlier across 1,043 auctions — the only major city to hold above 60% for two consecutive weeks.
Brisbane was the weakest result of the week. Cotality put the preliminary clearance rate at 45.7% — the lowest early auction outcome for the city since April 2023 — while Ray White's data had Brisbane's clearance rate at an even softer 36.5%, despite house prices still sitting 15.4% above year-ago levels. The divergence between the two measures reflects methodology differences, but both point in the same direction.
Cotality's head of research Tim Lawless (pictured right) noted that volumes are set to lift significantly next week, with just over 2,750 homes scheduled to go under the hammer nationally, including more than 1,000 each in Sydney and Melbourne. That supply increase will provide a sharper test of demand conditions — particularly given that Ray White's data shows the buyer pool is thinner than it has been in years.
"With policy uncertainty still settling, interest rates higher and buyer attendance materially lower than a year ago, this softer demand environment is likely to persist for some time," Conisbee said.
For mortgage brokers, the message from both datasets is consistent: property investors and owner-occupiers are hesitating at the inspection stage, where caution is most acute. Borrowing capacity concerns, higher mortgage rates and lingering uncertainty over the budget's negative gearing and CGT changes are collectively suppressing the conversion from interest to action. With the largest auction week of recent months approaching, the next set of clearance numbers will carry significant weight.
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