Australia’s property market is already feeling the effects of climate risk, and mortgage professionals are being pushed to rethink how they assess security, serviceability, and long‑term borrower vulnerability.
New University of Sydney modelling suggests Australia’s housing affordability crisis is exposed to a sharper squeeze if high‑emissions pathways prevail, with rents outpacing incomes and homelessness projected to quadruple by 2036, The Guardian reported.
The researchers simulated the housing system using two decades of public data, testing different climate scenarios to gauge how stress builds over time.
They conclude that the impacts of global heating on housing are “very unequal” and fall disproportionately on renters and people experiencing homelessness, according to Nader Naderpajouh.
The study frames climate change as a structural stress multiplier layered over familiar drivers such as incomes, interest rates, insurance costs, and population growth.
Lead author Peyman Habibi‑Moshfegh said governments should test potential interventions against climate pathways rather than relying on static assumptions.
“Our findings show that any new housing policies need to undergo climate-change simulations to make sure they don’t deepen inequality,” Habibi‑Moshfegh said.
Naderpajouh argued that a one‑size‑fits‑all approach will not work in a climate‑stressed housing system.
“We cannot address the housing system by one blanket policy,” he said, calling for more targeted support for low‑income renters and stronger measures to address homelessness.
Economist and Climate Council councillor Nicki Hutley argued that climate change “should be front and centre” in housing and planning decisions, from cutting emissions through more efficient, better‑built homes to ensuring dwellings and communities can withstand extreme weather.
Her comments echo earlier national climate risk assessments, which have warned that climate impacts could strip up to $571 billion from property values by 2030 under worst‑case scenarios, as more homes fall into high‑ and very‑high‑risk zones and sea levels rise.
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