ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose for a third consecutive week, lifting 1.4 points to 88.6 in the first week of July – the highest reading since mid-May.
Confidence is now 9.6 points above the same week in 2024 and 2 points above the 2025 weekly average of 86.6.
This marks the first three-week streak of gains since May, when confidence rose in the lead-up to the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) previous rate cut.
“The board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis,” the RBA said in its July statement.
“Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated,” it added, pointing to geopolitical risks and recent tariff developments, including US trade moves that may disrupt supply chains.
The consumer confidence uptick was driven by improved sentiment about personal finances and the broader economy, although results were mixed across the states. Confidence rose in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia but fell in New South Wales and Queensland.
A net 20% of Australians (up 3pts) now say their families are better off financially than this time last year, compared to 42% (down 3pts) who feel worse off. Expectations for the next 12 months improved slightly, with 29% (up 1pt) expecting to be better off and 32% (down 1pt) expecting to be worse off.
Despite overall optimism, buying sentiment declined after the end of the end-of-financial-year sales. Just 25% of Australians (down 3pts) said now is a good time to buy major household items, while 34% (up 3pts) disagreed.
“The ‘time to buy a major household item’ was the only subindex to see a decline last week, as end-of-financial-year sales concluded at the beginning of the survey period,” said ANZ economist Sophia Angala (pictured).
RBA’s hold came despite widespread expectations of a third rate cut, with all big four banks – ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac – forecasting a reduction. The recent rate move follows cuts in February and May.
“Confidence in both the financial and economic outlook strengthened, possibly supported by the prospect of an RBA rate cut at its July meeting,” Angala said.
In the lead-up to the decision, some banks had already lowered rates, and borrowers had hoped for further relief as inflation hit a three-year low of 2.9% and unemployment held at 4.1%.
However, the board cited caution about both supply and demand dynamics. Six of the nine RBA board members voted to hold, while three supported a cut.
