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Australia’s residential mortgage market has pushed to a fresh record, with banks’ home loan books swelling again in November and brokers sitting in the crosshairs of rising competition, tightening borrowing capacity and still-climbing property values.
Authorised deposit-taking institutions collectively held $2.41 trillion in residential mortgages at the end of November, according to Canstar’s analysis of the latest Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) banking statistics.
For brokers, the data underlines two parallel realities: overall credit volumes remain robust, but the mix of lenders, the shape of demand and the constraints on first-home buyers are shifting.
Canstar’s breakdown of the APRA figures shows banks’ housing portfolios increased by 0.67% in November and 6.36% over the 12 months. That topline number, however, masks very different growth trajectories across lenders.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia booked the biggest monthly increase in absolute terms, adding $4.6 billion in housing credit, a 0.76% rise in November.
Macquarie Bank once again outpaced the major banks on growth, lifting its mortgage book by $3.6 billion over the month – an increase of 2.32% – helping drive almost 24% growth over the year.
ANZ, by contrast, posted a much more modest gain. Its home loan portfolio grew by $189 million in November, or 0.06%, marking its smallest monthly increase since April 2022.
For brokers, this divergence is filtering directly into day-to-day conversations with clients, as turnaround times, rates, credit appetite and policy nuances vary more clearly between the majors and their challenger rivals.
The growth pattern over recent years has steadily reshaped the competitive landscape.
Canstar’s assessment of APRA data indicates that six years ago, the major banks held 78.3% of residential mortgages on bank balance sheets. Today, that collective share has fallen to 73.6%, with Macquarie’s rapid expansion the standout driver of change.
“The mortgage market posted another robust result in November, growing to a record high of $2.41 trillion, fueled by a property market that’s largely refused to cool,” said Sally Tindall, data insights director at Canstar.com.au.
“While the big four banks continue to hold the lion’s share of mortgages, Macquarie remains the standout challenger. With an annual growth rate of nearly 24%, Macquarie is chipping away at the dominance of the majors by offering an alternative that clearly resonates with borrowers.
“Canstar analysis of the APRA data shows six years ago, the majors held 78.3% of all residential mortgages from the banks. Today, that’s slipped down to 73.6%. While this won’t be enough for the majors to hit the panic button, Macquarie’s consistent performance is rattling the cage.”
For brokers, that “rattling” is translating into a broader set of viable options for clients, particularly those attracted by sharper pricing, flexible policy or digital processes from non-major banks. But it also means brokers need to stay across more rapidly evolving risk appetites and pricing strategies.
The expansion in mortgage balances continues to move in step with rising property values.
Canstar notes that Cotality’s Home Value Index gained 8.6% over 2025 – the strongest calendar-year increase since 2021 – underscoring the resilience of housing demand despite higher interest rates.
Looking ahead, expectations for 2026 are more restrained, with the potential for further Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate increases hanging over borrowers. Even so, Canstar’s analysis of Westpac projections based on Cotality data suggests national home prices are still tipped to rise, supported by strong demand and ongoing supply constraints.
Under those projections, the median Sydney house price could increase by more than $79,000 over the year. In Perth and Adelaide, median house values are forecast to push beyond $1 million if prices track Westpac’s outlook.
For brokers, this creates a difficult environment for first-home buyers in particular: values keep edging higher, even as serviceability pressures and assessment buffers bite.
“A couple of RBA hikes could take some heat out of the property market by putting a handbrake on the maximum amount people can borrow from the bank, however, it’s unlikely to send prices in reverse,” Tindall said. “Increasing demand for properties, spurred on by the uncapping of the government’s Home Guarantee Scheme and a continued strain on supply, is likely to push prices up even in the face of cash rate hikes.”
Rising dwelling values are helping existing borrowers build equity, which can support refinancing, debt consolidation or upgrading strategies – all areas where broker advice is central.
On the flip side, for renters and would-be first-home buyers targeting a 2026 entry, higher prices combined with any further rate hikes risk squeezing borrowing capacity and deposit requirements.
Canstar’s modelling suggests that two cash rate rises in 2026 could reduce the maximum borrowing power of an average-income borrower by about $24,000. The precise impact would vary by lender, reflecting differences in serviceability buffers, test rates and expense benchmarks.
Borrowers who are already stretching to the upper limits of what lenders will allow could be particularly vulnerable if assessment criteria tighten or buffers increase further.
“First-home buyers looking for a way in should prioritise saving a solid deposit and give their budget plenty of wiggle room,” Tindall said. “Borrowing every last dollar the bank will lend you comes with risks. Understand what your mortgage repayments would look like if rates rose 3 percentage points further and make sure you’re 100 per cent comfortable paying that money on your current wage.”
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