The number of Australians struggling to meet their home loan repayments is rising sharply, with new Roy Morgan research revealing that 28.2% of mortgage holders — equivalent to 1,473,000 people — are now considered at risk of mortgage stress as of April 2026.
That figure is up 1.4 percentage points from March and represents the third consecutive monthly increase, after hitting a three-year low late last year.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine (pictured) attributed the trend directly to the RBA's reversal of last year's easing cycle.
"The rise in mortgage stress was caused by the Reserve Bank's decision to raise interest rates by +0.25% in February and by +0.25% in March to a total of 4.1% which followed the rate of official inflation more than doubling from 1.9% in the year to June 2025 to 4.6% in the year to March 2026," she said.
The number of mortgage holders classified as "extremely at risk" — those for whom even interest-only repayments would exceed a critical share of household income — now stands at 1,069,000, or 20.5% of all mortgage holders, significantly above the long-term two-decade average of 16.3%.
The national figures mask significant geographic variation. Digital Finance Analytics found severe mortgage stress in Sydney's lower north shore — including Lane Cove, Northwood and Riverview — rose 208% in Q1 compared with the previous quarter, while Melbourne's southeastern suburbs including Carnegie and Glen Huntly surged 1,024% year-on-year.
The April data does not yet capture the full impact of the RBA's third rate rise this year, which occurred in May and lifted the cash rate to 4.35%. Roy Morgan's modelling projects that the share of mortgage holders at risk will rise to 29.8% in May — equivalent to 1,552,000 people, up 79,000 from April.
If the RBA proceeds with a further 25 basis point increase at its June meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.6%, the at-risk share would climb to 30.2%, or 1,577,000 people. By July, that figure is projected to reach 30.7% — 1,599,000 mortgage holders — equivalent to the highest cash rate in nearly 15 years, since November 2011.
"The Reserve Bank's decision to raise interest rates again in May by +0.25% to 4.35% is set to increase mortgage stress even further to 29.8% in May 2026, equivalent to 1,552,000 mortgage holders," Levine said.
While rate rises are driving the trend, Roy Morgan's model assumes other variables remain constant — meaning employment conditions are the most significant wildcard. Over 1.2 million new jobs have been created since May 2022, providing a meaningful buffer against more severe stress outcomes.
The current at-risk reading of 28.2% remains well below the record high of 35.6% reached during the Global Financial Crisis in mid-2008. However, inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict — which pushed annual CPI from 3.7% in February to 4.6% in March — are expected to keep the RBA under pressure to continue tightening, with the temporary relief from the fuel excise cut only providing a short-term offset. With at least one further rate rise now expected, the trajectory is firmly upward.
Get the hottest and freshest property and mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
