Housing sentiment among Australian property professionals has turned negative, with the NAB Residential Property Index falling 18 points to -4 in the September 2026 quarter. According to the survey, it is “moving into negative territory for the first time in six years”.
The index, based on the views of around 228 real estate agents, developers, fund managers, and investors, has recorded its third straight quarterly fall and sits far under its long-run average of +22. Weaker house price expectations drove the decline, while expectations for rents were little changed.
Respondents now expect national house prices to fall 4.2% over the next 12 months, a sharper decline than the 2.5% fall forecast in the June quarter. South Australia (-5.4%) and New South Wales (-5.1%) are tipped to see the steepest falls, while Tasmania remains the only state where respondents expect solid growth.
For brokers, the clearest signal is what is holding buyers back. The survey found: “Interest rates remained the biggest constraint on established home buyers for a second quarter, followed by access to credit.” The level of house prices, buyers’ main constraint since 2025, has dropped to fourth place.
Separate figures show the scale of that squeeze. Cotality estimates the four rate rises since February have cut the borrowing capacity of a median-income household by almost $90,000, or about 9%.
Rates are also weighing on new supply, with 58.3% of respondents now citing them as a barrier to starting new housing projects, up from 39.6%. Only construction costs ranked higher.
First-home buyers’ share of the established market eased to 34.4%, from 39% in the June quarter. In new developments, their share fell more sharply, to 25.2% from 38.6%. Owner-occupiers who are not first-home buyers increased their share in both segments.
Separate survey data suggests many are waiting rather than giving up. Westpac’s latest Home Ownership Report found three in four first-home buyers are holding off until prices fall further, even though 79% say they are more motivated to buy than a year ago.
The NAB survey also asked about stamp duty this quarter. It found: “Two thirds indicated that stamp duty adds a barrier to first or newer home buyers”, a view held most strongly in Western Australia (78%). Most respondents (61%) also said the tax encourages owners to stay in their current home, and 43% said it discourages downsizing.
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