Australia’s housing market hit a pause in November, with national house and unit prices flat over the month – a shift mortgage brokers will want to watch closely as demand, listings and rate expectations all start to move in different directions.
Ray White Group chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured) said the levelling off comes after a strong spring run‑up.
“Australia’s housing market levelled out in November, with both national house and unit prices unchanged over the month at $940,000 and $710,000 respectively," Conisbee said. "This follows steady gains through spring, including the 1.1% rise in October that pushed annual house price growth into double-digit territory sooner than expected.”
The flat national result was driven largely by a slowdown in the larger east‑coast capitals.
“Sydney and Canberra both recorded zero monthly growth in November, while Melbourne also paused after several months of improvement,” Conisbee said.
In contrast, the markets that have led this cycle continue to run ahead.
“Perth, Adelaide, and Darwin all recorded monthly gains of between 1.1% and 1.5% in November for houses, and remain the key contributors to national growth. These cities continue to face significant supply shortages and ongoing demand pressures.”
Regional Australia is also still a major driver of momentum.
“House prices outside the capitals rose 1.4% over the month, compared with 0.9% across the capitals," Conisbee said. "Regional Western Australia, regional South Australia and parts of regional Queensland continue to post solid results underpinned by extremely low stock levels.
“As noted last month, smaller capitals and regional areas are expected to remain the key outperformers into early 2026.”
Apartments are following a similar pattern.
“Capital-city apartment prices were flat overall, but strong monthly gains continue in Perth and several regional areas," Conisbee said. "Affordability remains a driver of demand in the unit market.”
After rising through spring, November saw a noticeable pull‑back in new stock.
“After rising through spring, new listings fell 20.4% month-on-month across the major capitals, with the largest drops in Canberra and Sydney,” Conisbee said.
“Despite this decline, newly advertised stock remains 0.9% higher than a year ago, indicating that supply is still tight but broadly unchanged from late 2024. With fewer sellers coming to market, buyers are heading into summer with reduced choice.”
Conisbee said demand is also showing early signs of cooling.
“Average active bidders per auction declined across most major cities in November, with the sharpest fall in Perth,” she said.
“Brisbane, Adelaide and the Gold Coast also saw reduced bidding depth. Clearance rates remain steady, but fewer competing bidders point to more measured buyer behaviour as higher borrowing costs continue to constrain purchasing power.”
Conisbee said the easing in auction competition was consistent with a recent shift in interest rate expectations, noting that stronger‑than‑expected inflation had delayed the expected timing of rate cuts and made it more likely that borrowing costs would stay higher for longer.
The Ray White economist added that while this was likely to further dampen demand, the concurrent fall in new listings should limit the impact by keeping supply constrained.
Conisbee said the interplay between softer buyer competition and tighter stock points to a gentler market, not an outright downturn.
“As such, the balance of softer competition but fewer properties coming to market suggests that price momentum may continue to ease, but widespread declines remain unlikely for now,” she said.
Fresh national forecasts support that view. Ray White’s latest outlook and SQM Research projections both point to dwelling price gains of around 6%–10% in 2026, with Conisbee expecting the market to move out of double‑digit growth by mid‑year and into a slower, more sustainable phase rather than a sharp correction.
For mortgage brokers, November’s data reinforces a patchwork market: flatter conditions in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra; ongoing strength in Perth, Adelaide, Darwin and many regional areas; and a backdrop of stretched affordability and higher‑for‑longer rates – but also moderate, positive growth still on the cards as the cycle rolls into 2026.
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