Australia’s regional migration story is changing, with value now trumping pure lifestyle, according to Herron Todd White’s Rachel Swindles (pictured).
Drawing on the CBA RAI September 2025 Regional Movers Index, she argues the “regional boom” has not ended but is now in a more selective, mature phase, as buyers focus on affordability and growth potential rather than simply sun and sea.
The latest index shows relocations from capitals to regions outpacing moves in the opposite direction by more than one‑third (36%), with capital‑to‑regional moves accounting for 11.5% of all major relocations versus 8.4% from regions back to capitals. Net migration to regional Australia rose 11.8%, with Sydneysiders making up 53% of net outflows and Melburnians 33%.
Market watchers are seeing a textbook “spillover effect” as popular regional hubs become too expensive and buyers target neighbouring markets with more room to move on price.
Albury (NSW) has historically been a high‑growth regional centre. But as entry costs have climbed, demand has spilled directly across the border. Wodonga (VIC) has recorded a massive 973% annual increase in net internal migration inflows, showing how quickly demand can pivot once buyers are priced out of an established regional hotspot.
While the Sunshine Coast remains a high‑volume destination, Swindles notes that momentum is increasingly tilting south, towards Victoria and Tasmania. Here, cost‑of‑living pressures and perceived upside are driving decisions.
Annual net migration growth in several Tasmanian LGAs is striking:
This emerging “Southern Shift” suggests buyers are placing more weight on affordability and capacity for capital growth than in previous cycles, when “sunbelt” premiums often dominated.
Beneath the headline inflow numbers, the index highlights a subtle but important structural shift in regional market depth.
Net migration from capital cities to regions is up 11.8%, yet movement within regional Australia has slipped 1.4%. Swindles describes this as a “lock‑in” effect: newcomers are still arriving, but existing residents are less willing to sell or relocate.
More buyers plus fewer listings typically means tighter stock, reduced turnover and underlying support for prices in many regional pockets.
In Western Australia, internal migration patterns are also pivoting. Perth has moved from being a net importer of residents to recording a 3% share of net outflows in the September quarter, while regional WA’s share of inflows has jumped to 10%.
As the Perth cycle matures, the data suggest regional WA is increasingly positioned as the next beneficiary of capital‑city overflow, mirroring earlier trends on the east coast.
For Swindles, the takeaway is that regional markets are entering a more nuanced phase. Demand is rippling beyond primary hubs into second‑tier towns and southern states where the fundamentals still stack up.
For property professionals, investors, and lenders, the opportunity now lies in reading those second‑order shifts – identifying the new value markets shaped by affordability, limited stock and evolving migration flows, rather than simply chasing yesterday’s headline hotspots.
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