Sydney is experiencing a historic population outflow, with more than 100,000 residents leaving in FY24 as housing affordability pressures intensify.
A new analysis of ABS data by Primara and Our Top 10 showed 104,231 Sydneysiders left the Harbour City, equal to 2% of the population.
Only 63,145 people moved in from elsewhere in Australia, resulting in a net internal migration loss of 41,086. Sydney is now the only major Australian capital that would be shrinking without overseas arrivals., The Daily Telegraph reported.
The trend comes amid a sharp rise in October property listings, with SQM Research reporting a 13.2% monthly jump in Sydney’s stock and a 17.2% surge in new listings—signalling rising vendor confidence even as affordability remains stretched.
Net overseas migration added 120,886 people to Sydney’s population, keeping overall growth positive at 79,800 for FY24. Without that inflow, the population would have fallen by 0.3%, the study found.
Simon Ma, Our Top 10 chief executive, said the outflow reflects the city’s extreme affordability challenges.
“(It’s) economic displacement driven by property prices that average Australians simply cannot afford,” Ma said.
He added the trend effectively “positions Sydney as Australia’s unaffordability capital, requiring constant overseas migration to mask its domestic population decline.”
Sydney’s median house price reached $1.62 million last month—around $500,000 higher than Brisbane and $600,000 above Melbourne. The affordability gap has widened as construction slows and housing stock remains tight.
REA Group economist Angus Moore said constraints on housing supply have compounded the issue.
“Young families are frequently leaving for more affordable markets. Despite this headwind, the Sydney (population) is still growing because it attracts high overseas migration,” Moore said.
“Housing supply has not matched population growth. Sydney needs more housing and that’s put pressure on prices over many years.”
Sydney’s price growth has continued despite the exodus, with values rising 0.6% in October and 8.4% over the past year— highlighting how tight supply is keeping prices elevated even as locals leave.
Parramatta-South recorded the biggest internal migration drop at -7.6%, followed by Chippendale, Rosehill–Harris Park, and Camperdown–Darlington.
Ma said these areas show a distinct churn of new arrivals who move on quickly once housing pressures set in.
He described the pattern as a “revolving door”, noting that residents settle initially before relocating to more affordable areas.
Despite heavy losses, Parramatta South still grew thanks to overseas migration equivalent to 10.4% of its population. Parramatta North saw similar dynamics, with 8.5% growth from overseas arrivals despite losing 2.7% internally.
Queensland drew 30,000 former Sydneysiders via internal migration in FY24 as households traded Sydney mortgages for more affordable coastal markets.
Regional NSW also expanded, adding 10,000 residents with minimal reliance on overseas migration.
Read the Daily Telegraph story on realestate.com.au website.
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