A year after the opening of Sydney’s Metro City & Southwest line, new research from Cotality shows housing value growth in metro catchments has generally lagged the broader Sydney market.
Cotality researchers analysed housing values within 1km (primary) and 1–5km (secondary) catchments of Sydney Metro stations. Phase 1 covers the North-West line from Tallawong to Chatswood, which opened in May 2019, while Phase 2 spans Chatswood to Sydenham, opened in August 2024.
Despite the new infrastructure, both phases recorded softer housing growth outcomes compared to the Greater Sydney benchmark. The exception was houses within 1km of Phase 2 stations, which rose 10.9% over two years compared to 9.6% across Greater Sydney.
Part of the slower growth is linked to the premium price points in metro catchments.
Median house values across Phase 2’s secondary catchments were $3.62m – around $2.1m higher than the Greater Sydney median of $1.52m.
Units in Phase 2 metro areas also carried a significant premium, with median values around $1.42m, or $550,000 higher than the Sydney-wide median. Analysts noted that at a time of stretched affordability and reduced borrowing capacity, such high entry prices are likely constraining further growth.
Housing cycles across metro catchments have broadly tracked Sydney’s turning points, though growth rates have varied.
Phase 1 catchments experienced stronger growth after project works commenced in 2013 but saw deeper corrections during 2015 and 2017-18 amid APRA’s investor lending restrictions and the Royal Commission. This suggests investor demand was a key driver in earlier upswings.
Phase 2 catchments have performed better than Phase 1 over the past year, with the primary catchment rising 2.3% compared to 2.9% across Greater Sydney. Over two years, Phase 2 primary catchments lifted 10.9%, slightly ahead of the Sydney-wide 9.6%.
Some suburbs have underperformed, with house values falling -2.3% in Chatswood and -1.2% in Cherrybrook over the past 12 months. Growth has been higher in more affordable western and south-western suburbs, where borrowing capacity stretches further.
Units have shown weaker performance than houses across both phases. Over the year to August, unit values in Phase 1 fell -1.4% in primary catchments and -0.4% in secondary catchments. In Phase 2, secondary catchment units declined -1.7% and primary catchment units fell -2.0%.
Two-year results also lagged the Greater Sydney benchmark of 3.7%. Units in Phase 1’s primary catchments dropped -4.9% and were flat in Phase 2. Secondary catchments managed only slight gains of 0.2% and 1.4%.
The weaker unit performance reflects the high share of apartment stock in these areas, including 65% in Phase 1 primary catchments and 89% in Phase 2 primary catchments.
Rental markets are considerably more expensive near Sydney Metro stations. Median rents ranged from a 21.4% ($172/week) premium in Phase 1’s primary catchment to a 46.9% ($375/week) premium in Phase 2’s secondary catchments.
House rents showed the sharpest differences, up 33% ($275/week) in Phase 1 primary areas and almost 80% ($660/week) in Phase 2 secondary areas.
Unit rents are also rising faster, especially in Phase 2 primary catchments where they jumped 5% over the past year and 9.7% over two years, Cotality reported.
Get the hottest and freshest mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
