Australia's unemployment rate continues to trend low, further curtailing hopes of near-term interest rate reductions in the New Year.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) logged a 4.3% unemployment rate in November, the same as the month before.
The results mark a reversal from September, when unemployment ticked up to 4.5% and sparked concerns about a softening labour market.
Stabilizing employment around the nation is good news for workers. But bad news for mortgage holders and investors still hoping for some added interest rate relief.
The latest employment figures play directly into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next move.
The RBA held the official cash rate (OCR) steady at 3.6% during its last three meetings on monetary policy — after cutting rates three times in 2025 — pointing to persistent underlying inflation as the key reason for pausing.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock even told reporters this month that the board "didn't consider the case for a rate cut at all" at its December meeting.
Now, some market players have voiced concerns that ongoing inflationary pressures running hotter than the RBA would like could trigger rate hikes in 2026.
In fact, September's quarterly consumer price index (CPI) revealed that both headline CPI and annual trimmed mean inflation rates are rising Down Under. Headline CPI edged up to 3.2%, in the 12 months leading up to September, compared with 2.1% during the June quarter. Trimmed mean annual inflation rose to 3% in September, up from 2.7% during the June reading. More importantly, both figures are outside of the RBA's target inflation range of 2% to 3%.
October's monthly CPI reading didn't provide much relief. Headline CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months leading up to October 2025, up from 3.6% in September. The trimmed mean monthly inflation rate was 3.3% during the same time period, up from 3.2% in September.
Ongoing inflationary pressures strain mortgage holders and investors, while also dimming the chances of near-term RBA rate cuts.
Harry Ottley, an economist at Commonwealth Bank (CBA) said the latest unemployment results point to "a labour market still on a very solid footing and too tight for comfort for the RBA.
"The labour market has been very gradually loosening through 2025," he continued. "But the RBA still views the labour market in totality as a bit too tight to bring inflation back to target."
Over at ANZ, economists said the data points to a labor market that's "a little soft overall."
"Our RBA views are unimpacted by these data," Aaron Luk, an economist at the major, wrote in a note. "We expect the cash rate to remain at 3.6% through 2026, although the risks of an early 2026 rate hike are rising."
In November, the national employment participation rate decreased to 66.7%, down from 67% in October. The number of jobs fell by 21,300, in seasonally-adjusted terms, during the month, a reversal from gains of 41,200 in October.
By state, Victoria recorded the highest unemployment rate in November at 4.7%, unchanged from the previous month, followed by Western Australia at 4.6% in November. This marks a shift from October, when the Northern Territory’s unemployment rate spiked to 5.2%, up from 4.2% in September; in November, the Northern Territory's unemployment rate fell back down to 4.4%.
Meanwhile, New South Wales had the lowest unemployment rate in November at 3.9%.
