As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) edges closer to its next meeting on monetary policy, one thing has become clear: there is no consensus. Economists remain divided, lenders are weighing competing economic signals and brokers on the frontline are interpreting the same data in markedly different ways.
The nation's central bank has already lifted the official cash rate (OCR) three times in 2026, bringing interest rates to 4.35%. At the June meeting, the board opted to hold, saying it needed more time to see how previous increases were flowing through the economy. Since then, a mix of stubborn inflation, a resilient labour market, rising wages, regulatory changes and ongoing global uncertainty has clouded the outlook. Now, with the August meeting just weeks away, market players are placing their bets on the RBA's next move.
In the third and final installment of Australian Broker's RBA outlook series, more industry leaders reveal where they think the central bank is headed next, and, more importantly, what another hold or rate hike would mean for borrowers, brokers and the broader housing market.
Mortgage broker and finance specialist at Perth-based Calculated Lending
"I hope to see the RBA hold the cash rate at its August meeting, as we need a period of stability rather than moving too quickly in either direction. While borrowers would welcome some interest rate relief, there has not yet been enough time to see the full effect of the three consecutive rate rises, followed by the decision to hold in June.
Holding rates again would give the economy more time to absorb those increases and give the RBA a clearer view of their impact before making its next decision. With the effects still flowing through to borrowers and the broader economy, cutting rates only two [meetings] after three consecutive rises would feel premature, particularly if any significant movement in the data could be temporary or reflect an initial reaction to the announcement of the proposed federal budget measures."
Franchise broker and owner at Aussie Home Loans in Bellarine, Victoria
"It's hard to know exactly what rates will do. What we are seeing, though, is that more people are taking a cautious approach to their repayments. Even when they have the borrowing capacity, many are rethinking whether they actually want to take on that level of debt.
One thing that has really stood out to me is that, rather than looking to cut back on their spending, many people are choosing to solve the affordability challenge by working more or increasing their income. It makes me wonder whether that’s an indication inflation could take longer to come down: if people aren’t reducing demand, but are instead finding ways to maintain their current lifestyle and spending habits."
Chief financial officer at Heartland Bank
"A hold remains the most likely outcome in August. The RBA is weighing improving inflation outcomes against a gradually weakening economy. Inflation is moving in the right direction, but not convincingly enough to support a rate cut, while softer growth reduces the likelihood of further hikes. For now, the board is likely to stay on the sidelines and wait for more data.”
Franchise owner and mortgage broker at Mortgage Choice — Morphett Vale in South Australia
"When speaking to clients, I am forecasting up to two more rate increases this year. Although I am not 100% convinced. I personally believe we will see one. I then expect them to hold before reducing a little next year.
It is certainly impacting the market. But to be honest, probably not as much as the changes handed down through the federal budget have. I believe the cost of living and uncertainty in the global environment are also holding people back. Investors are still out there, but looking for different stock and structures. First-time homebuyers can now compete more. But with higher rates, borrowing capacity is down, which means we may see prices fall."
Cofounder and director at Darwin-based Bliss Home Loans
"I think rates will hold. We've had a few hikes already that have seen some slowing [of the economy.] There is also slowing in the labour market due to the rising rates, and while not fast, inflation is slowing. I have seen some fixed rates lower too, which indicates that lenders perhaps think so as well.
Also, some of the bigger real estate markets, like Melbourne and Sydney, are slowing down with much lower auction clearance rates. Markets like Brisbane are still having growth, but at a slower rate. Regional markets are a different story. But outside of locations having major projects, that's generally how it is."
Head of strategy and partner at Flint Group
"We think the RBA holds at the August meeting, and that the next move in the cash rate from here is down, rather than up. Much of the market is still focused on whether there's one more hike left in this cycle. We'd frame it differently. Three rate rises already this year have had a real impact. We're seeing property transactions down as much as 20% in parts of the market, credit growth forecast to slow sharply and consumer confidence sitting at multi-decade lows. That points to an economy that's already feeling the effects of tighter policy, rather than one that needs further tightening.
Our base case is a hold in August, with a cutting cycle to follow, potentially multiple cuts through to the end of 2027 as policy moves back towards a more neutral setting. The exact timing is always hard to call precisely, but we think the direction is now clearer than the market is pricing in. For buyers and investors, the practical read is, plan around the possibility of lower rates ahead, not another hike."
