Australian mortgage brokers operating in Perth’s south‑west corridor face a new, long‑term source of demand as AUKUS investment ramps up – adding to an already stretched housing market rather than igniting a fresh boom.
Local agents are already reporting an “extremely stressful” spring for buyers, with multiple offers, properties selling well above asking and affordable homes “flying out the door,” according to REIWA.
Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured) said Perth’s market has been “running hot for several years” and AUKUS will layer additional pressure on top of existing constraints.
“Perth’s housing market has been running hot for several years, driven by population growth, tight supply, and strong local economic conditions," Conisbee said. "Now a new demand driver is emerging – AUKUS. While it won’t recreate the intensity of WA’s mining booms, the scale and timing of the investment mean it will still matter for Perth’s housing outlook, particularly in the south-west corridor.”
The AUKUS build‑up will deliver more than $20 billion to Western Australia over the next decade through upgrades to the Henderson shipbuilding precinct and HMAS Stirling, alongside thousands of new roles.
“More than $20 billion will flow into WA over the next decade through upgrades to the Henderson shipbuilding precinct and HMAS Stirling, supported by the creation of over 10,000 construction and shipbuilding jobs and an additional 3,000 roles linked to the submarine base," Conisbee said. "This is a very different type of workforce to FIFO mining labour, but it is a sizeable number, and importantly, it is long-term and metro-based.”
Conisbee said AUKUS arrives on top of a market already facing intense pressures across prices, rents, and supply.
“Perth’s housing market is already stretched," she said. "There has been a multi-year run of strong price growth alongside some of the tightest rental conditions in the country. Rents have risen sharply, vacancy rates remain historically low, and construction activity is lagging well behind population growth. Against this backdrop, any additional labour inflow, even a modest one, has an outsized impact.”
REIWA president Suzanne Brown echoed this, saying spring 2025 has been “an extremely stressful time for buyers trying to secure an affordable home”, with some first‑home‑buyer‑level properties attracting more than 100 groups at a single home open and dozens of offers.
In one case in Girrawheen, Brown noted a home listed “from $690,000” sold for $850,000 after attracting 110 groups at the first home open and more than 45 offers, with the property ultimately going to a first‑home buyer. Nearby suburbs Balga and Koondoola have also recorded double‑digit price growth year‑on‑year, with all three areas still priced below the Perth median.
In a media release, Brown urged buyers – especially first‑home buyers – to be realistic and flexible on property type and suburb, to stay within budget, and to have finance pre‑approved given median days on market are near record lows at around nine days.
Unlike past mining booms, which pushed demand across Perth and deep into regional WA, AUKUS pressure is expected to be highly concentrated, according to the Ray White analysis.
“Where AUKUS differs from mining is in the composition and distribution of demand," Conisbee said.
"Mining booms pushed housing pressure across the entire metropolitan area and deep into regional WA. AUKUS activity is far more concentrated. Demand will cluster around Rockingham, Kwinana, Cockburn, and Fremantle, areas already under pressure and with limited short-term supply flexibility.
"This localised effect means the impact may feel large on the ground, even if the overall magnitude is smaller than past resources cycles.”
Brokers servicing Rockingham, Kwinana, Cockburn and Fremantle are likely to see more competition for established stock, stronger investor interest, and heightened urgency around approvals and pre‑approvals.
At the same time, Brown said listings remain “simply not enough to meet demand”, with total properties for sale in mid‑November still more than 40% below year‑ago levels despite a small seasonal uptick.
On the supply side, Conisbee warned that policy and construction settings leave Perth poorly placed to meet rising demand.
“Policy settings will matter too," she said. "Construction pipelines remain thin, with fewer projects entering the system and costs still elevated. This leaves Perth with limited capacity to increase supply just as demand begins to rise.”
Brown said the low level of houses available to purchase is also discouraging potential upgraders from listing, as many fear they will be unable to secure a suitable replacement property – a dynamic that further constrains turnover and choice.
Overall, Conisbee said AUKUS will reinforce existing pressures rather than transform the market.
“Taken together, AUKUS is unlikely to deliver a mining-style boom, but it does add another layer of demand to an already tight market," the Ray White economist said.
"With long-run housing supply falling short of population needs and rental conditions remaining extremely constrained, the AUKUS workforce will reinforce existing pressures rather than create new ones. The impact will be uneven, highly localised, and most visible in suburbs closest to WA’s growing defence precinct.”
The core drivers of Perth’s outlook remain firmly in place.
“For Perth, the key story remains the same: demand continues to rise, supply continues to struggle, and prices continue to respond accordingly," Conisbee said. "AUKUS won’t redefine the market, but it will nudge it further along the same trajectory – steadily, structurally and for many years to come.”
For now, REIWA members report the strongest demand is coming from first‑home buyers, local and first‑time investors and families looking to secure a new home, while the $2 million‑plus segment is noticeably steadier, with longer days on market and sales transacting closer to expected price ranges.
For mortgage brokers, that means planning for a long period of elevated demand, tight rental conditions, and ongoing affordability stress – particularly in the south‑west corridor – rather than waiting for a short‑lived AUKUS‑driven spike.
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