Business turnover in Australia edged up 0.1% in June 2025 (seasonally adjusted), while Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose slightly in July – two key indicators suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy and lending markets.
“The arts and recreation services industry had the largest rise, up 3.5%… Another notable rise was in the mining industry, which went up 2.1%,” Robert Ewing (pictured left), ABS head of business statistics, said in a media release. “At the same time, we saw a drop of 2.2% in other services. Professional, scientific and technical services was also down 2%.”
Over the year to June, turnover was 2.9% higher, with manufacturing (+7.8%) and transport, postal and warehousing (+5.9%) recording the biggest annual rises, while mining (-2.1%) and professional, scientific and technical services (-0.1%) fell.
In July, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 0.6pts to 103, despite the Reserve Bank holding the cash rate at 3.85% against expectations of a cut.
Michele Levine (pictured right), CEO of Roy Morgan, noted that the latest ABS inflation data showed June quarterly annual inflation at 2.1% – the lowest in over four years – and said most market economists and media commentators now believe this low inflation has virtually guaranteed a rate cut by the Reserve Bank at its next meeting, likely by 0.25% to 3.6%.
Business confidence improved for both business financial prospects and the short-term economic outlook, with 40.9% expecting to be “better off” next year and 62% anticipating “good times” for the economy over the next 12 months.
For mortgage brokers, the combination of steady turnover and rising confidence – alongside expectations of an imminent rate cut – could translate to more lending activity in the months ahead, particularly in sectors like real estate services, wholesale trade, and accommodation and food services, which are showing above-average confidence.
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