Australia’s home loan market saw minimal rate movement this week, with most lenders holding steady ahead of next Tuesday’s Reserve Bank (RBA) meeting, according to Canstar’s latest Weekly Rate Wrap-up.
Beyond Bank increased two owner-occupier variable rates by an average of 0.05%, while just two lenders cut a total of 10 owner-occupier and investor variable rates by an average of 0.1%.
Regional Australia Bank also trimmed five investor fixed rates by an average of 0.15%.
The average variable rate for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest now sits at 5.93%.
The lowest variable rate available on any loan-to-value ratio (LVR) remains 4.99%, offered by G&C Mutual Bank, Horizon Bank and Unity Bank — all exclusive to first-home buyers.
For refinancers, Hume Bank offers a 4.99% two-year locals-only introductory rate. The next best rate is 5.08% from in1bank.
Canstar’s database now lists 593 variable rates below 5.25%, up from 589 last week.
Canstar insights director Sally Tindall (pictured) said lenders appear unconvinced that a cash rate cut is imminent despite growing speculation.
“Plenty of economists might be tipping a RBA cut next Tuesday, however, if rate movements are anything to go by, banks are showing little confidence one will materialise,” Tindall said.
“On the mortgage front, just two lenders cut select variable rates over the last week, while one lender hiked. Looking at fixed rates, no lenders hiked, however, just two lenders cut.”
Tindall said term deposit movements were equally uneven – a possible signal that markets remain uncertain about the RBA’s next move.
“In term deposits – so often the canary in the coal mine when a cash rate change is expected – this week’s results were even more mixed, with six banks cutting, albeit by an average of 0.08 percentage points, while five banks hiked term deposit rates by a much larger average of 0.46 percentage points,” she said.
Markets are now focused on this Wednesday’s CPI figures, which could determine whether the RBA has room to ease policy.
“Wednesday’s CPI figures should bring the RBA, and the market, greater clarity,” Tindall said. “At this stage, it’s difficult to see the RBA jumping at one round of disappointing employment data, however, if inflation does perform better than expected, the RBA will be in for a tough decision come next Tuesday.”
While many in the market believe the RBA’s 2025 easing cycle is complete, some economists aren’t so sure. Hobart-based economist Saul Eslake expects another rate cut as early as November, saying there’s “well over 50% confidence” the bank will move again, while others — such as CBA, NAB, and ANZ — see the next move coming in early 2026.
Borrowers may see limited rate relief in the short term, but competition at the lower end of the market remains active. Brokers should continue to monitor lender specials, particularly those targeting first-home buyers and local refinance deals, as the RBA’s next move approaches.
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