NAB has become the second big bank in as many days to abandon its rate-cut forecast, now expecting the Reserve Bank to hike the cash rate at its 28–29 September meeting — just a day after ANZ reversed its own forecast to predict a hike in November. NAB has also flagged a possible second move in November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level since the GFC.
The shift from both banks follows fresh ABS data showing trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred measure, held at 3.6% annually in July — unchanged since November 2025, despite headline inflation easing to 3.5%. Household spending added further pressure, rising 7% year-on-year in July, the fastest annual pace since June 2023, with discretionary spending up 7.8% for a third straight month of gains.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said the pattern has left the RBA with little room to move.
"Sticky core inflation is backing the RBA into a corner, with NAB the latest major to abandon hopes of a pause," Tindall said. "Trimmed mean inflation hasn't dropped since late last year, signalling that underlying price pressures remain entrenched in the economy."
Should the RBA hike in both September and November, Tindall said a borrower with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining could face an extra $183 a month in minimum repayments from those two moves alone, taking the cumulative increase across five hikes this year to $456 a month. Borrowers with larger loans face steeper rises still, with a $1 million mortgage potentially facing $759 in cumulative monthly increases.
Tindall said borrowers shouldn't wait for the RBA's decision to act.
"Mortgage holders shouldn't wait for the board's September decision to take action," she said. "If your variable rate starts with a '6' or a '7' as an owner-occupier, you are likely paying a loyalty tax that can be instantly shaved off by shopping around, or at least haggling with your current bank."
Canstar's tracking shows 35 lenders have cut variable rates for new customers since 1 June, with 52 lenders now offering at least one variable rate below 6%, pointing to a broader lending market moving in the opposite direction to the two banks' rate expectations.
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