Australian farmland ended 2025 at record levels, but beneath the headline gains lies a much thinner, more fragmented market and a tougher outlook for 2026.
“Australian farmland concluded 2025 at a national median price of $10,979 per hectare, capping off a remarkable 15-year journey that has seen values nearly triple since 2010,” Ray White Group head of research Vanessa Rader (pictured) said.
Yet that national figure masks a sharp divergence between regions.
Victoria remained the country’s most expensive broadacre market at $14,826 per hectare, reflecting its higher‑value land and proximity to major cities. New South Wales finished just over $10,000 per hectare, while Queensland and South Australia each hovered around the mid‑$9,000s. Western Australia, at $9,635 per hectare, posted some of the strongest annual growth off a lower base, buoyed by a standout cropping season.
Volumes told a more sobering story. After peaking above 10,500 sales in 2021, only 5,408 farmland transactions were recorded nationally in 2025 – roughly half the peak. Rader noted that “this 50% decline from the peak reflects the lingering effects of elevated interest rates keeping buyers cautious, even as sellers maintained firm price expectations.”
WA was a relative bright spot with 456 deals on the back of timely rainfall, while Victoria’s 856 sales highlighted the challenges facing drier southern regions.
Performance also split along climatic lines. Queensland led national price growth at 10.6% as stronger cattle and sheep prices and improved seasons revived demand for grazing country. Western Australia logged a 30.5% jump, while South Australia’s 25.6% rise was partly catch‑up after earlier underperformance. Victoria, however, saw values slip 2.6% as dry conditions curbed expansion appetite.
The outlook has become more complicated after the Reserve Bank reversed course in February 2026, lifting the cash rate and signalling that “market expectations have shifted, with sentiment now pointing toward further upward moves rather than additional cuts.” That is a blow for expansion plans that were predicated on a longer easing cycle.
Commodity markets are mixed – cattle prices are near late‑2022 highs, but grain faces pressure from ample global supply and a stronger Australian dollar. At the same time, climate risk is front of mind after early‑2026 bushfires in Victoria and floods in northern Queensland caused severe stock and infrastructure losses.
Rader said “the critical factor for 2026 remains seasonal conditions.” With Bureau of Meteorology forecasts pointing to warmer temperatures and patchy autumn rain, she expects a more granular market where local rainfall, land type, and production capacity drive returns. The era of uniform national farmland growth, she suggested, is giving way to a cycle where “location, land type, production capability, and timing matter more than ever.”
With the RBA hiking again and rural borrowing costs rising, there is likely to be a greater focus on refinancing, debt restructuring and cash‑flow protection rather than aggressive land acquisition.
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