Home loan pricing shifted only slightly in the latest round of lender changes, according to Canstar's weekly rate wrap-up.
The Mutual Bank was the sole lender to move on variable rates, trimming one by 0.1%, while five lenders adjusted a combined 75 fixed rates for owner-occupiers and investors, cutting them by an average of 0.3%.
The average variable rate for owner-occupiers on principal and interest remains at 6.66%, with the cheapest variable rate on Canstar's database sitting at 5.69%, offered jointly by LCU and Pacific Mortgage Group. Just three rates on the database now sit below 5.75%, unchanged from the previous week.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall (pictured) described the pricing moves as modest, saying "Rates shifted down a notch this week, albeit by a hair and a freckle, with one lender cutting new customer variable rates and five taking the knife to fixed."
Behind the small pricing shifts, forecasting among the major banks continues to move, though not in a straight line. Tindall noted that Westpac has revised its expected timing for RBA rate relief, now anticipating cuts in the second half of 2027 rather than early 2028. Westpac has pencilled in a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting. CBA, ANZ and NAB, by contrast, are all expecting a hold, with NAB forecasting its next move will eventually be a cut.
That optimism comes with a catch, however. As Tindall put it, "Let's not forget Westpac is still expecting rate hikes this year, well before any relief might flow through," a stance broadly aligned with the Reserve Bank's own hawkish positioning.
According to Westpac's July Market Outlook, the bank still regards a follow-up hike in September as the most likely scenario, though “conviction about its occurrence and timing has declined” — while the subsequent rate-cut timeline has been pulled forward to August 2027, from an earlier forecast of early 2028.
Away from rate settings, Tindall pointed to a separate cost pressure facing borrowers and renters alike.
Fresh Cotality figures show national rents rose 1.6% in the June quarter, easing from 2.1% growth in the March quarter but still climbing steadily. Over the past five years, rents have jumped more than 40%, adding an average $204 a week to household costs — compared with just $55 a week in the prior five-year period.
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