Brokers have two dates to watch this Wednesday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release fresh construction figures, and RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter will address the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra, offering further clues on the rates path.
The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% last month after three hikes since January, though hawkish minutes leave the door open to another rise.
Hunter's remarks will be read closely for signs of where the board goes next, and any hint of a shift in tone could move borrower expectations well before the next formal decision.
Wednesday's building data is expected to show two different stories moving in opposite directions: commencements accelerating, but completions still trailing the pace needed to meet the national housing accord target.
More than 53,000 homes were started in the December quarter, an 8% lift on the previous quarter and a 26% jump year-on-year, and Housing Industry Association senior economist Tom Devitt expects commencements to keep climbing into the March quarter.
Completions tell a different story: around 173,000 homes were finished in 2025, well short of the roughly 240,000 a year needed under the accord.
"Our forecasts have them well under," Devitt told AAP.
Devitt pointed to the HIA's own modelling, which puts the real, sustainable target even higher once shrinking household sizes and the existing shortfall are factored in, noting "the number we came up with was 250,000 homes per year."
That gap underscores why new-build lending demand is unlikely to ease any time soon, regardless of near-term rate movements.
A spokesperson for Housing Minister Clare O'Neil said build times had improved by 10% since the accord began in mid-2024, adding, "more homes being approved, more homes being built, and, importantly, they're being delivered faster."
There's also better news on costs than many expected. Wednesday's data will capture the first month of fuel-cost pressure from the Middle East conflict, and while economists had warned of construction cost rises of up to 10%, Devitt said the real-world impact has been far smaller: "more like 1%; a few thousand dollars added by fuel costs and other isolated supply constraints." That relative stability may offer some reassurance to clients weighing up build costs on new contracts.
Markets steady ahead of the RBA speech
Away from housing, offshore markets offered a calmer backdrop heading into the week. Wall Street was closed for the Independence Day break on Friday, while semiconductor and other AI-linked stocks fell on Wednesday and Thursday, with financials and healthcare shares favoured instead. The ASX 200 closed the week up 1.37%, at 8,844.4, while the broader All Ordinaries gained 1.31%, to 9,048.3.
Read the report on the CBA website.
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