Australian mortgage demand has now fallen year-on-year for four consecutive months, with Equifax data suggesting the market has settled into a genuinely lower baseline rather than simply reacting to individual rate decisions.
The figures land just ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision — a meeting where, ironically, no further tightening is expected, with all four major banks now forecasting a hold at 4.35% following softer-than-expected inflation data.
Where earlier months showed pockets of resilience, particularly among older borrowers, July's data reflects broad-based contraction. Demand fell most sharply among Gen Z (down 21.1%) and Millennials (down 20.1%), while even the 65+ cohort recorded an 11% decline. Every state also posted a fall, led by Queensland (18.6%), South Australia (17%) and Victoria (16.7%), ahead of NSW (16%) and Western Australia (12.8%).
Equifax chief solution officer Kevin James (pictured) said the early-year support from government deposit schemes had largely been offset by higher rates.
"Without a clear signal on cash rate relief or broader economic easing, this cautious holding pattern is likely to remain the reality for the remainder of the year," James said.
After dipping just 0.9% in April, demand slowed further to a 6.6% year-on-year fall in May, then dropped sharply to 18.8% in June before easing slightly to a 16.4% decline in July. First-home buyers have followed a similarly steep trajectory, down 20.9% in June and 19.1% in July.
James said the pattern points to something more structural than a short-term reaction.
"In May, we observed a handbrake effect starting to slow demand, and June saw that trend accelerate," he said. "With July marking our fourth consecutive month in negative territory, the data indicates that mortgage demand isn't just reacting to individual rate decisions — at this current stage it appears to be settling into a lower baseline."
Total refinancing demand fell 17% in June and 15.5% in July, with same-lender refinancing down 22.4% in July, a steeper fall than the 8.4% decline in borrowers switching to a different lender.
James said this suggested the earlier wave of borrowers renegotiating directly with their existing bank had largely run its course.
"The four-month drop in same-lender refinancing suggests that much of that initial repricing wave has played out," he said. "Today, stricter bank serviceability buffers and elevated household expenses mean fewer borrowers are actively seeking or qualifying to adjust their home loans."
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