Profitability holds firm in March quarter as rate cuts reignite housing momentum

Most resales still profitable despite first drop in median gains since 2023, Cotality reports

Profitability holds firm in March quarter as rate cuts reignite housing momentum

News

By Mina Martin

Profitability across the Australian property market remained robust in the March quarter, with 94.9% of resales delivering a profit, according to Cotality’s latest Pain & Gain report.

The report, based on 86,000 resales, showed total gross resale profits reached $31.7 billion, slightly down from the December quarter, but up from $30.2 billion in the same quarter last year.

The median nominal profit fell slightly to $305,000, down from $310,000 in December. This marked the first decline in quarterly resale profits since March 2023.

Cotality Head of Research Eliza Owen (pictured) said the figures suggest a market in transition, with rate cuts now supporting renewed growth.

“Although profitability held steady in early 2025, we’re seeing clear signs of renewed momentum. With rate reductions now flowing through to buyer demand and value growth, we expect stronger resale returns in the months ahead,” Owen said.
“Profit-making resales closely followed home value trends, with profitability dipping slightly as prices softened late last year. But that pullback has already reversed.”

Losses narrow as sellers benefit from early recovery

Of the 5.1% of resales that recorded a nominal loss, the median loss declined to $44,000, from $45,000 in the December quarter. Total losses also dropped to $258 million, from $298 million previously.

Houses continue to outperform units

Houses delivered far stronger results than units in the March quarter, with 97.2% of house resales making a profit, compared to 90.1% of unit sales. The median gain for houses was $355,000, around 73% higher than the $205,000 median gain for units.

Although houses and units saw similar loss amounts—$45,000 for houses and $44,000 for units—units accounted for 62.6% of all loss-making sales, reflecting ongoing weakness in the unit sector.

“Several large apartment markets that saw a building boom in the late 2010s have yet to recover materially,” Owen said.

Long-term underperformance also plays a role: national house values rose 80.2% over the past decade, while units increased 37.7%.

Four LGAs—Melbourne, Parramatta, Port Phillip, and Stonnington—accounted for over one in four unit resales that made a loss. In these markets, unit values have grown by just 2% on average since 2015.

More short-term resales as interest rates reshape decisions

The national median hold period for resale was 8.8 years, continuing a long-run trend. However, there was a notable uptick in short-term turnover: properties held two–four years made up 15.6% of transactions.

“These short-term sales may reflect fixed-term borrowers exiting during a rising interest rate environment,” Owen said. “This cohort had a higher rate of loss, which is unsurprising given the market downturn that followed rate hikes from 2022.”

Regional markets lead profit share

Regional Australia continued to outperform capital cities, with 96.5% of resales making a profit, compared to 93.9% in the capitals. Lifestyle markets like Noosa, Busselton, and the Sunshine Coast saw some of the nation’s biggest gains.

In Noosa, the median resale profit surged from $239,000 in March 2020 to $617,500 in March 2025.

“The outsized gains reflect not just price growth, but the enduring appeal of lifestyle locations through and beyond the pandemic,” Owen said.

Capital city breakdown: Brisbane leads, Melbourne and Darwin lag

  • Brisbane posted the highest rate of profitable resales (99.7%) nationally.
  • Adelaide overtook Sydney for the highest median gain at $385,000, a title Sydney had held since August 2014.
  • Perth came in third, with 97.9% of resales making a gain—up 20 basis points from December.
  • Sydney’s profit-making rate dipped to 92.3% from 92.5%, the third-lowest among capitals.
  • Melbourne recorded the second-highest loss rate behind Darwin, with 11.3% of resales selling below the original purchase price.
  • Hobart saw a slight decline in profitability, falling to 94.5% from 95.3%.
  • Canberra improved from 93.4% to 94.5% in profit-making sales.
  • Darwin recorded the highest rate of losses (26.2%), though this marked an improvement of 240 basis points over the quarter.

Outlook: Profitability likely to rise as rate cuts take hold

With home values up 1.3% in the three months to May, and interest rate cuts in February and May starting to lift sentiment, Cotality expects the profitability trend to strengthen.

“With rate reductions now flowing through to buyer demand and value growth, we expect stronger resale returns in the months ahead,” Owen said.

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