Australia’s housing market cooled to a more sustainable pace in September after August’s rapid acceleration, according to Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured).
National house prices rose 0.6% and units 0.5% in September, a slowdown from August’s “sugar hit” surge of 1.3% and 1.0% respectively.
Conisbee said the moderation reflects underlying market momentum rather than overheating.
“Australia’s housing market cooled to a more sustainable pace in September following August’s rapid acceleration,” she said.
The recalibration suggests the August rate cut provided a one-off boost, with buyers moving quickly on cheaper borrowing costs before growth steadied.
Other data providers also reported steady gains. PropTrack’s Home Price Index showed a 0.5% monthly rise — the ninth straight increase — pushing values to a record high. National prices are now up 6.2% over the year, adding about $54,100 to the median and climbing more than 50% in five years. Cotality’s Home Value Index recorded a stronger 0.8% lift in September, the sharpest monthly gain since October 2023, adding $18,215 to the median dwelling value in the quarter.
Despite the softer monthly pace, house prices are still up 8.9% over the year to a median of $970,000, while units rose 6.9% to $710,000. If steady growth continues through the final quarter, house prices could cross into double-digit territory by December.
RBA held rates at 3.6% in September but struck a cautious tone on inflation and spending. Economists are split: CBA expects a cut in February 2026, NAB in May 2026, while Westpac and ANZ still tip November 2025 — a timeline that could shape how strongly house prices climb into double-digit growth.
The September gains were broad-based across the capitals and regions, keeping the national upswing intact. While Perth and regional WA continue to lead the country, September’s story was less about local standouts and more about a broad-based lift across the market.
Detached houses remain the main driver of the upswing, with annual house price growth of 8.9%, compared to 6.9% for units. Affordability pressures are still keeping demand for apartments strong, even as detached houses remain the market’s main growth driver.
If current trends hold, Australia’s housing market is on track for its first double-digit annual rise since the pandemic boom, highlighting the resilience of demand in a higher-rate environment, Ray White reported.
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