As Australia prepares for the federal election this Saturday, housing affordability and first-home buyer incentives are dominating campaign debates—prompting renewed questions about how the outcome could shape Victoria’s real estate market.
Marcus Williams (pictured), CEO of Buxton Real Estate Group, said while political promises grab headlines, market fundamentals remain the true drivers of property demand.
“Affordability is a real and pressing issue, but Victoria’s property market has proven remarkably resilient,” Williams said.
“While the election could influence short-term buyer activity—especially if grants or incentives are introduced—the long-term outlook remains strong, particularly in key growth corridors and regional hubs.”
Mark Haron, executive director at Connective, echoed this sentiment, warning that affordability pressures extend beyond election policies.
“High interest rates, housing shortages, higher construction costs, cost-of-living pressures and tighter access to finance are putting homeownership increasingly out of reach for many,” Haron said.
“Much of the campaign focus has been on short-term measures, rather than addressing the broader economic conditions that continue to put households under financial strain.
“Aussies deserve policies that support a sustainable lending environment and protect consumer choice.”
In Melbourne’s Inner West, Matthew John, director and auctioneer at Buxton, said first-home buyers are closely watching the election outcome.
“There’s always noise during an election cycle, especially around housing affordability, and right now both major parties are making big promises to first-home buyers,” John said.
“If those promises translate into real support, like shared equity schemes or deposit assistance, we’re likely to see renewed demand for entry-level properties in our area.”
He added that seasonal stock levels could intensify competition.
“If buyer activity increases while listings tighten, we could see upward pressure on prices again, especially in areas with strong infrastructure and lifestyle appeal.”
In Ballarat, Peter Burley, director at Buxton Ballarat, said the market remains active despite election season uncertainty.
“There’s no doubt that election chatter causes a degree of uncertainty—people want to know what’s changing before making big decisions,” Burley said. “But the reality is, life doesn’t stop. People are still upsizing, downsizing, relocating for work, or making decisions around family needs.”
He stressed that trust and transparency are key.
“Our approach has always been to focus on what we can control: clear communication, honest advice, and delivering value to our clients,” Burley said.
The region is also benefiting from $186 million in rural and regional healthcare funding, including major upgrades to Ballarat Base Hospital.
In Geelong, confidence is building—particularly among seasoned investors.
Matt Hunt, director at Buxton Geelong, said the outlook is increasingly positive.
“While housing policy is attracting a lot of attention, I believe interest rates will be the bigger lever this year,” Hunt said. “With economists tipping multiple rate cuts on the horizon, we expect borrowing capacity to improve, which could drive a new wave of buyer activity.
“In the past few months, we’ve seen a spike in buyers’ advocates representing clients in Geelong—an indicator that sophisticated investors see long-term upside.”
The city is set to gain from $133m in regional rail upgrades and major investments in education and training infrastructure.
In Bendigo, a leading destination for internal migration, market momentum has remained stable throughout the election period.
Matt Leonard, director at Buxton Bendigo, reported strong ongoing interest.
“Traditionally, election campaigns slow the market, but in Bendigo, we’ve seen sustained activity,” Leonard said. “There’s been no major dip in buyer interest or vendor listings.”
He noted that new regional policies could add fuel to local demand.
“If the Coalition’s proposed policies come to fruition—particularly regional incentives like the $1.5bn developer fund and mortgage support for first-home buyers—we could see a further boost to regional activity.”
Victoria’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2024–25, with employment rising 1%, supported by infrastructure spending and strong population growth.
The Victorian budget 2024–25 includes more than $2bn for regional infrastructure and housing, plus a $700m expansion of the Homebuyer Fund and investments in homelessness services.
Despite political uncertainty, Buxton Real Estate believes Victoria’s property market remains well-supported by infrastructure, population growth, and sustained buyer demand—particularly in regional growth areas.
