Australia’s wage growth held at 3.1% annually in June 2026 – but for mortgage brokers, the picture underneath is less reassuring. Jobs growth slipped below break-even, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows no sign of easing the cash rate.
The latest Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) Wage and Labour Insights report tracks de-identified salary flows from about 400,000 accounts. It showed wages rose 0.8% over the three months to June. Higher inflation has not yet pushed wages higher.
Borrowers’ incomes are growing. But the pace is not enough to offset elevated mortgage costs after three RBA rate rises in 2026.
CBA economist Harry Ottley said the next few months would be telling. The 4.75% increase in minimum and Award wages is set to take effect. ‘The increase in minimum and Award wages of 4.75% will likely see Q3 wages pressure pick up,’ Ottley said.
CBA’s wage data has broadly tracked the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ wage price index (WPI). The ABS WPI rose 0.8% in the March quarter 2026. Annual growth was 3.3%. ‘The quarterly rate of growth showed no signs of higher actual and expected inflation having translated into higher wages pressure at this stage,’ Ottley said.
CBA forecasts WPI growth of 1.0% in the September quarter. Its own wage tracker will offer an early read next month. The official ABS data is not due until November 2026.
Employment growth slowed in June. CBA’s labour data estimated 17,000 jobs were added. That was down from 18,000 in May.
The figure sits below the ‘break-even’ level needed to stop unemployment from rising. CBA expects the jobless rate to peak at 4.8% in the December quarter of 2027. It currently sits at 4.4%.
‘We expect employment growth to continue to ease going forward,’ Ottley said. ‘The economy is slowing due to higher interest rates and a cooling housing market.’
Business confidence also remains weak. For brokers, a softening jobs market compounds the strain already felt from elevated borrowing costs. Lending capacity hinges on income stability. A rising unemployment rate erodes it.
CBA tracks a proxy for voluntary job changes. It measures the share of accounts recording large wage jumps. A high rate signals a tight market. Workers leave jobs when better offers are available.
That proxy keeps declining. It is consistent with a labour market that has been cooling since its peak tightness in 2022. ‘Overall, the data supports our broader view that the labour market continues to loosen gradually,’ Ottley said.
He added that conditions remain ‘a little too tight for comfort for the RBA’. The central bank wants to see slack in the market before it considers easing the cash rate.
CBA expects the unemployment rate to drift higher. It forecasts the market will move closer to balance over coming years, helping pull inflation back towards target.
Western Australia led the nation at 3.7%. It eased slightly from May. South Australia matched WA at 3.7% in June. It was the first time the two states sat level.
Tasmania recorded the biggest monthly lift. Its wage growth jumped to 3.3% from 2.9% in May. Victoria posted the slowest growth at 3.0%.
| State | Annual wage growth (June 2026) | Change from May |
|---|---|---|
| Western Australia | 3.7% | ▼ Slight easing |
| South Australia | 3.7% | ▲ Rose to equal WA |
| Tasmania | 3.3% | ▲ Up from 2.9% |
| Victoria | 3.0% | Slowest in nation |
| National average | 3.1% | Steady |
For brokers in slower-growth states, income assessments may face tighter scrutiny. Borrowers in WA and SA carry a slight edge in serviceability calculations. The September quarter will show whether Australia’s wage growth accelerates – or whether brokers must prepare clients for a leaner income outlook.
