NAB cut select owner-occupier fixed rates by up to 0.2 percentage points on Wednesday, taking its cheapest offer — a two-year fixed loan — to 6.34%, down from 6.54%. Its one-year rate eased 0.05 percentage points to 6.44%.
The move comes less than three weeks before the Reserve Bank's next cash rate decision.
The cut puts NAB firmly with the tide rather than against it. Tracking by Canstar.com.au shows 21 lenders have cut at least one fixed rate since 1 June, compared with just 11 that have lifted a rate over the same period. ANZ and Macquarie were both among the lenders trimming pricing recently, while Westpac was one of the few to add 0.05 percentage points to some fixed terms.
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said the shift reflects where lenders think the cash rate is heading.
"NAB has joined the fixed-rate cutting brigade, shaving up to 0.2 percentage points off its shorter-term fixed loans, even though the RBA's next cash rate decision is still weeks away," Tindall said. "The majority of lenders have been moving fixed rates lower since the start of June, suggesting the market believes the cash rate has either peaked or is very close to it."
The banks remain split on what comes next. Westpac still expects two further 0.25 percentage point hikes, in August and potentially September, while CBA, NAB, and ANZ believe the cash rate has already peaked. All four expect cuts to begin next year.
Tindall cautioned that fixed pricing remains uncompetitive despite the recent cuts.
"While fixed rates are starting to head back down to Earth, they're still a far cry from being competitive. It's difficult to see many customers rushing to fix their mortgage with a rate that starts with a '6'," she said.
With ABS labour force data due Thursday and CPI figures next week, Tindall said the future of both the cash rate and fixed pricing will likely hinge on what that data shows. For now, she said borrowers weighing up a fixed term should base the decision on whether they value repayment certainty over flexibility, rather than trying to outguess the RBA.
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