A record 24,546 Australian households are at risk of defaulting on their mortgage, up 24% on a year earlier, according to the OurTop10 Default Loan Report for the September quarter 2026. OurTop10 says the pressure is now spreading beyond the outer suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne into Adelaide and regional Queensland.
The report, compiled by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA), covers 70 ranked postcodes across Australia. The at-risk count rose in 66 of them over the year. Growth slowed to 3% in the quarter, after an 18% jump in the June quarter.
“A slower quarter is not a better quarter,” said Mansour Soltani (pictured), head of research at OurTop10.
The figures are DFA’s modelled projections of households likely to default within 12 months. They aren’t loans currently in default or lenders’ arrears data.
South Australia recorded the fastest growth of any state. Borrowers at risk across its 10 ranked postcodes rose 13.6% in the quarter to 1,874, and 31% over the year. Encounter Bay posted the country’s biggest quarterly increase, up 78% to 166 households.
Western Australia was next, up 7.3% for the quarter to 5,895 households.
In Queensland, the state total was almost flat, but regional areas such as Manunda in Cairns, up 25%, and Craignish on the Fraser Coast, up 17%, rose sharply.
Experian’s data points the same way. Its latest Housing Pressure Report found home loan accounts under strain grew 7.3% in the first half of 2026, with the pressure concentrated in regional areas.
Cranbourne in Melbourne’s south-east remains the country’s biggest hotspot, with 1,364 households at risk. Victoria had the highest state total, at 6,026.
New South Wales was the only state to record a quarterly fall, down 1.2% to 3,782. Blacktown, however, recorded the sharpest annual rise in the country, up 76%.
Soltani warned that the figures don’t yet reflect the September rate rise or this week’s increase, and that the effect of earlier rises is still flowing through to household budgets.
“Many households have already burned through their savings buffers,” he said.
A Canstar survey taken around the latest decision found one in 10 mortgage holders say they won’t be able to meet higher repayments, with a further 28% expecting to struggle.
Soltani said banks have also reported more requests for hardship arrangements this year. For brokers, the regions at the top of the list may see growing demand for repayment reviews and hardship support.
Get the hottest and freshest property and mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
