Mortgage stress across Australia's hardest-hit postcodes has climbed to 421,725 households, according to the latest OurTop10 Mortgage Stress Report, powered by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA).
The figure represents a net increase of 52,030 households in the June quarter alone — a 14% rise in three months and an 18% increase over the past year, with 68 of the 80 ranked postcodes recording higher stress levels.
The report measures mortgage stress through household cash flow rather than the conventional "30% of income" rule, classifying a household as stressed when regular expenses, including owner-occupier mortgage repayments, exceed income.
While Sydney and Melbourne still carry the largest overall totals — 90,156 and 94,461 stressed households respectively — the fastest movement this quarter came from smaller and previously more affordable markets.
Perth recorded the largest net increase of any state or territory, adding 14,746 stressed households, with Canning Vale (6155) more than doubling from 2,448 to 5,028 households in stress.
Hobart posted the steepest single postcode movement nationally, with beachside Kingston (7050) surging 304% in a single quarter.
OurTop10 director Mansour Soltani (pictured left) said the trend reflects a broadening geographic pattern.
"Mortgage stress is no longer confined to Australia's outer suburban growth corridors. We're seeing some of the fastest deterioration in Perth and, perhaps more surprisingly, severe financial pressure emerging in blue-chip suburbs across Melbourne and Sydney that have traditionally been viewed as immune," Soltani said.
The findings echo separate modelling from Roy Morgan, which shows mortgage stress risk has now risen for five consecutive months, reaching 30.3% of mortgage holders — or 1.6 million people — in the three months to June, the highest level since June 2024. Roy Morgan's modelling suggests a further RBA rate rise in August would push that figure to 31.2%, underscoring how the DFA data reflects a broader national trend.
The report's severe stress measure — capturing households whose cash flow remains deeply negative month after month — found nine of the 10 fastest-rising postcodes sit in premium coastal or leafy inner suburbs rather than growth corridors.
Sydney's Bilgola led with a 515% quarterly surge, followed by Perth's North Fremantle and Melbourne's Hampton. Melbourne accounted for four of the ten fastest-rising postcodes in this category, including Camberwell, Balwyn North and Brighton.
DFA principal Martin North (pictured right) said the outlook offers little near-term relief.
"Ahead, the RBA may have to lift rates again to tame inflation, so we expect real incomes to continue to fade for many people, putting more pressure on them to cut back, refinance, or eventually sell. This smells of a long difficult episode for many, rather than a quick turnaround," North said.
The data points to three groups driving much of the increase: recent first-home buyers who entered with small deposits, households in outer-suburban estates facing higher transport and living costs, and affluent but heavily leveraged households, some holding investment properties that are losing money month to month.
Get the hottest and freshest property and mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
