ANZ has become the third major bank to push back expectations for the next Reserve Bank cash rate cut, now predicting it will come in February 2026. The bank also expects it to be the final cut of the cycle.
In the past eight days, three of the big four have revised their forecasts, with ANZ and CBA tipping February and NAB pointing to May. All three expect just one cut in the cycle.
Westpac remains the outlier, still forecasting three cuts — in November, February, and May — but has admitted a November move is “far from assured.”
Canstar.com.au lists the lowest variable rate for owner-occupiers at 4.99% (for first-home buyers). Refinancers may be eligible for rates as low as 5.08%, while investor variable rates start at 5.24% for principal and interest, or 5.39% for interest-only loans.
“ANZ is the third major bank to slam the door shut on expectations of a 2025 rate cut,” said Canstar’s Sally Tindall (pictured).
“Households waiting for the RBA to swoop in with a cut could be waiting a while. If you want to get ahead on your mortgage, take matters into your own hands by shopping around for a sharper rate. Owner-occupiers might find deals under 5.25%, while investors can aim for under 5.5%. If you’re paying significantly more, it’s time to take action.”
Despite uncertainty over rate cuts, APRA data shows mortgage lending remains strong, with authorised deposit-taking institutions growing their housing books by $11.6 billion in August.
Even as cuts remain off the table, lenders are still competing with incentives.
“Cashback deals might not be as abundant as they were a couple of years ago, but they’re not dead in the water. Right now 10 lenders are still offering cash incentives of up to $4,000.
For some borrowers, these sweeteners can help cover refinancing costs and put a dent in the household bills,” Tindall said.
“Points offers are another way lenders are trying to stand out, with Australia’s biggest bank joining the party last month with up to 300,000 Qantas Points on offer. But borrowers should remember, free flights and cash bonuses sound appealing, yet the real savings come from securing a low interest rate — particularly on larger loans.”
For mortgage advisers, the message is clear: with RBA holding steady, clients can still achieve meaningful savings by negotiating sharper rates, refinancing strategically, and weighing incentives carefully.
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