Brisbane's rental market is bracing for another price surge, with real estate professionals reporting a sharp jump in investor activity as landlords move to positively gear their properties ahead of the federal budget's negative gearing and capital gains tax changes.
Ray White AKG CEO Avi Khan said his team had recorded a more than 150% jump in investor appraisals in a single week, as owners sought to understand what their properties could earn before the regulatory landscape shifts, The Courier Mail reported.
Under the budget's changes, negative gearing will be restricted to newly built homes from July 2027, with a 30% minimum on capital gains tax replacing the previous 50% discount. Properties purchased before that date will be grandfathered under the existing rules — creating a clear incentive for current investors to maximise yield on their existing holdings now.
"So many investors are thinking of increasing rents," Khan said. "A lot of investors buy properties with the future outlook of buying more. When they're in the journey of one, they're in the journey of two, three. When they get these properties positively geared, they'll be able to buy more."
Khan warned the budget changes would widen the property wealth gap rather than close it, pushing rental costs higher while making it harder for prospective first-home buyers to accumulate a deposit. Existing investors, he argued, would use the policy shift as a catalyst to lift rents and consolidate their positions — while new entrants would find themselves locked out of the tax advantages the previous generation used to build substantial portfolios.
"If tenants are going to pay more for rent, they're less likely to save for a deposit," Khan said. "The previous generation got negative gearing for forty years and built property fortunes on it."
Industry groups had already flagged the risk. FBAA interim CEO Peter White called the combination of rising rates and tax changes "a toxic mix of pain and devastation," while Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee warned: "Affordability pressure does not disappear when you reduce investor incentives; it shifts onto tenants."
Into this debate lands another complication. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35% in May — its third hike of 2026 — adding further pressure on mortgage holders already stretched by higher living costs.
Exclusive survey results from Herron Todd White (HTW) found 83.9% of property specialists doubted the budget would meaningfully ease pressures on renters or first-home buyers. More striking still: 85% of those surveyed believed chronic housing undersupply — not tax policy — would remain the dominant driver of price growth over the next five years.
HTW CEO Peter Maloney said the findings pointed to a market shaped more by structural supply constraints than any near-term policy intervention.
"Demand remains strongest in markets that can offer relative affordability, lifestyle appeal and access to employment and infrastructure," Maloney told The Courier Mail. "The combination of population growth, constrained housing delivery, and affordability pressures is continuing to create distinct pockets of opportunity across a range of metropolitan and regional markets."
Despite the policy headwinds, many Brisbane investors appear to be staying the course, anchored by the city's 2032 Olympic Games infrastructure pipeline and its price advantage over Sydney and Melbourne. Queensland was the second-most nominated state for strongest property value growth over the next 12 months in the HTW survey, with 24.2% of specialists selecting it — narrowly behind NSW at 27.4%.
Place New Farm agent Aaron Woolard said while some investors would reassess portfolios — particularly those who had built their strategy around negative gearing — the buyers he was dealing with were focused on longer-term capital growth rather than immediate tax benefits.
"Brisbane is still being viewed as one of the strongest long-term capital growth markets in the country. Compared to the southern capitals, buyers still see relative value here, and for many investors that future capital growth potential outweighs the negative gearing benefits alone," Woolard said.
Get the hottest and freshest property and mortgage news delivered right into your inbox. Subscribe now to our FREE daily newsletter.
