Australian mortgage brokers could be in for a busy few weeks if the Reserve Bank (RBA) follows through on expectations of a cash rate hike at its first meeting of the year, with new Equifax data pointing to rising refinancing demand even before any move.
Equifax executive general manager Moses Samaha (pictured) says past tightening cycles suggest borrowers may react quickly if rates lift again. Samaha suggested that should RBA choose to increase rates today, “we could see a short burst in refinance activity, similar to the immediate reaction seen at the start of the 2022 tightening cycle.”
“In 2022, the reaction to the first rate hike was immediate,” Samaha said. “As soon as rates rose in May 2022, refinance volumes lifted 25% compared to the previous month (April 2022). Mortgage holders moved quickly to secure rates before further increases, and that activity stayed roughly 15% above the April 2022 baseline for the following six months.”
Equifax analysis shows the groundwork is already being laid for another wave. Refinancing enquiries climbed 9.6% in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, while first-home buyer mortgage enquiries rose 11.2% over the same period.
When it comes to who is driving the activity, homeowners aged 46+ led refinancing enquiry growth in Q4 2025 with a 12% year‑on‑year increase – the first time since 2023 this cohort has topped the table. Borrowers aged 35–46 were close behind with an 11.1% YoY rise, while 26–35 year olds recorded a 5.4% increase.
“We’re seeing refinancing demand being driven by older demographics as mortgages stretch further into later life,” Samaha said. “As Australians are taking longer to enter the market, and as mortgage sizes are growing, mortgage debt can’t be considered just a young family’s burden –Gen X and pre-retirees are still actively refinancing.”
Large non‑bank lenders posted the strongest refinancing enquiry growth in Q4 2025, up 34% year‑on‑year, ahead of Tier-2 banks (13%), Big Four subsidiaries (7.7%) and the majors themselves (3.9%).
For brokers, the Equifax numbers suggest it’s worth segmenting client books now – especially older borrowers on larger balances – so you’re ready with repricing or refinance options if another RBA move sparks a fresh wave of rate‑sensitive enquiry.
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