First-home buyers and property investors in Queensland are facing a tougher affordability backdrop, with fresh data showing prices accelerating across almost every major region.
The Real Estate Institute of Queensland’s latest median sales figures for the December quarter point to a market being driven higher by chronic housing shortages rather than cheap mortgage rates or looser borrowing capacity.
Statewide, the median house price rose 6.11% over the quarter and 13.7% over the year, reaching $955,000 for the December quarter and $880,000 on an annual basis. Units climbed even faster, with median prices up 7% over the quarter and 16.13% year‑on‑year, underlining the pressure on more affordable parts of the market.
REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella (pictured) said the supply gap remains the dominant story.
“We’re still not building at the scale and speed we need to relieve the supply squeeze, and with every quarterly target not met, we’re falling further behind,” Mercorella said.
The report highlights a combination of weak new supply and restricted listings.
Under the National Housing Accord, Queensland is meant to deliver just over 49,000 new dwellings a year, but completions over the past four quarters have averaged around 34,000.
Building approvals are also running below target, with January recording about 3,600 approvals versus roughly 4,100 needed each month, and the current annual pace sitting about 13% under the goal.
Global forces are adding to those construction headwinds, with higher oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East pushing up local fuel and freight costs, feeding into construction and materials inflation.
On the established side, owners are hanging on. Total listings in Brisbane were down 25% in December 2025 compared with a year earlier, while regional Queensland listings fell 15%, and early 2026 figures suggest the shortfalls are persisting.
Mercorella said “these persistent supply pressures are what’s underpinning property price growth”, alongside high interstate migration, strong population forecasts, and tenants shifting into homeownership.
She noted that first-home buyers have also been encouraged by the federal government’s 5% Deposit Scheme, which lifted price caps to $1 million in Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and Sunshine Coast, and $700,000 elsewhere in the state.
The REIQ data point to a pronounced two‑speed market. Premium segments – including million‑dollar LGAs such as Redlands and tightly held coastal areas – continue to post strong gains, but competition is fiercest in the lower price brackets.
“Competition for housing is intensified around the lower quartiles of the market where affordability is greatest and it’s perceived potential gains are highest, and this demand tapers off as you move up the price spectrum, reflecting an increasingly divided two-speed market,” Mercorella said.
For brokers, the challenge is helping clients navigate that two‑speed market and stay within borrowing limits as prices continue to climb.
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