A modest cooling in national property values since the federal budget is creating favourable conditions for homeowners looking to upgrade, according to Raine & Horne Executive Chairman Angus Raine (pictured).
Cotality data shows residential values have fallen just 0.4% nationally in the six weeks since the Budget was handed down, with Sydney and Melbourne each softening by around 1%, translating to roughly $12,000 off Sydney's median and $8,000 off Melbourne's. Brisbane, Hobart, Perth, and Darwin, by contrast, continued to rise through June.
"This is hardly a sign of the sky falling in," Raine said, adding that the shift represents "a modest fall in the context of today's property values."
The softening matters most for upgraders, Raine argues, because it narrows the gap between what a seller loses on their current home and what they save on their next purchase. Using a worked example, he noted that an owner selling a $1 million home to buy a $1.5 million property would come out roughly $25,000 ahead if both values fell by 5%, since the larger purchase price yields a proportionally bigger dollar saving.
Buyers are also benefiting from reduced competition in the current climate.
"The current market is working in favour of buyers, who are benefitting from less competition and greater negotiating power," Raine said.
That softening is visible at auction: Cotality's latest results show the combined capital cities' clearance rate has held below 50% for a third straight week, with Brisbane falling to 23.8% — its weakest result since May 2020 — and Adelaide dropping 23 percentage points to 45.7%.
Reduced buyer competition is also easing pressure in the finance pipeline.
Craig Bettalli, senior mortgage advisor at Our Broker, Raine & Horne's financial services arm, said easing loan application volumes are translating into speedier turnaround times:
"Lending applications have eased, which means well-prepared buyers armed with home loan preapprovals can expect faster home loan turnaround times and a smoother approval process, helping them secure their next property sooner," Bettalli said.
The easing is consistent with the broader rate environment: the RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% following three hikes earlier this year, with the board noting that "financial conditions are now tighter than they were, and there are signs that the economy is slowing as expected."
Raine was careful to frame the softening as a short-term opportunity rather than a shift in Australia's underlying property trajectory. Strong overseas migration and a persistent shortage of new housing stock remain the key structural drivers supporting values over time, he said, and will continue to underpin price growth in the long run.
"Successful property buyers think in terms of decades, not weeks or months, and their buying decisions are not shaped by short term policy changes or the latest market sentiment," Raine said.
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