Australian mortgage brokers are heading into 2026 with solid home prices – but that doesn’t automatically mean more deals.
Ray White Group chief economist Nerida Conisbee (pictured) said that while price growth often grabs the headlines, it is a poor guide to how many homes will actually change hands in a given year.
“Trying to predict how many homes will sell in any given year is far more complicated than predicting prices,” Conisbee said. “There are periods when prices rise strongly but sales volumes fall, and others where prices go nowhere yet turnover surges. The reason is that transactions are driven less by what homes are worth and more by whether people are able and willing to move.”
Volumes swing harder than prices – and broker pipelines
Long‑run data shows just how volatile turnover can be. Over the past 25 years, annual transaction volumes have swung between fewer than 380,000 sales and more than 580,000, cycling far more sharply than price growth, population, or housing supply would suggest.
For brokers, those swings feed straight through to enquiry levels, pre‑approvals, and settlements. Chains of linked moves – one owner selling to buy, enabling another seller to move, and so on – can quickly slow if something interrupts the process.
Interest rates and credit conditions are key.
“Interest rates are a major influence on volumes because they determine whether people can actually move,” Conisbee said, noting that “when rates rise, households become stuck.”
Tight lending standards, tougher serviceability buffers, and weaker economic confidence can all break the chain even when prices are high.
Beyond prices: what really drives transaction flow
Conisbee highlighted a range of other forces that can amplify or suppress turnover: investor participation, job security, life events like marriage or divorce, the level of new housing supply, rental market pressures and shifts in tax and policy settings.
Between 2018 and 2020, a mix of credit restrictions, rising rates, and uncertainty pushed turnover to some of the lowest levels in two decades, despite strong population growth.
Looking ahead, Conisbee expects the outlook for transaction volumes to remain challenging. With no rate cuts expected in the near term, constrained new construction and lingering affordability pressures, the Ray White economist believes turnover is likely to “stay below long run averages” even if prices prove resilient.
For brokers, that points to a year where fewer Australians are able or willing to move, making proactive client nurturing, database work, and diversified referral networks critical to defending volumes in 2026.
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