The number of Australian home loans showing signs of repayment strain grew 7.3% in the first half of 2026, more than three times the 2.3% rise recorded over the same period last year, according to Experian’s Housing Pressure Report.
Experian counts loans in arrears, under hardship arrangements, or with variations as under strain, and 1.8% of home loan accounts met that test in June 2026. The report combines the credit bureau’s de-identified credit and spending data with a September survey of 1,010 Australians, conducted after three cash rate increases earlier in the year.
Many households have little room to absorb further rises. One in five respondents (20.9%) said they regularly or sometimes draw on savings or credit to get through a typical month. And 42.4% said they were not confident they could handle a 10% increase in repayments without cutting back on essentials or borrowing more.
Brokers are seeing the squeeze too. In the Mortgage & Finance Association of Australia’s August 2026 survey, 49.2% of brokers reported more clients unable to refinance because of serviceability, more than double the share six months earlier.
Borrowers aged 35 to 44 recorded the fastest growth in strain, up 11.8% in the first half of 2026. Those aged 45 to 54 had strain levels about 13.6% above the national average in June. The same two age groups were also more likely than average to name interest rate changes as the main reason their repayments had changed, at 47.5% and 45.5% respectively, compared with 34.5% nationally.
Regional home loans were around 10.5% more likely than average to be under strain, with Greater Melbourne and regional Victoria recording the highest levels.
“Housing pressure isn’t showing up evenly across Australia; national averages can mask important differences between locations, life stages and borrower groups,” said Barrett Hasseldine, head of data science at Experian Australia and New Zealand.
He said the groups reporting the most rate pressure were often the same ones showing rising strain in their credit data.
“That may provide lenders with additional insight to help identify changing circumstances earlier and support customers appropriately,” Hasseldine said.
Over the past year, 18.5% of respondents said they had delayed plans to buy a home, 11.4% had lowered their price range, and 8.4% had given up on buying altogether. Home loan accounts opened in July 2026 fell 10.5% year on year.
Other data points the same way. NAB’s latest survey of property professionals found interest rates were the biggest constraint on established home buyers for a second consecutive quarter.
The borrowers who are still entering the market look less risky. New borrowers carry a 12.9% lower predicted default risk than a year earlier, and average new loan sizes fell 1.7% between the March and June quarters. Experian said changes to lending policy and serviceability requirements may be among the reasons.
“Understanding housing pressure requires more than a single metric,” Hasseldine said.
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