Australia's housing slowdown is spreading and speeding up, with falling values, thinner sales, and swelling stock handing buyers more leverage, according to Herron Todd White's (HTW) Month in Review for September.
"This is a broadening downturn," said Peter Maloney (pictured left), chief executive of Herron Todd White.
The national median time on market has lengthened from 28 days to 39 days, and the median vendor discount has widened from 3.3% to 4%, according to Cotality figures cited in the report. The deepest discounts are in Sydney, Perth, and Brisbane, as house prices continue to fall across the nation.
HTW chief economist Cameron Kusher (pictured right) said the imbalance leaves purchasers in a stronger position, as "those who are buying have less urgency and more choice."
Transaction volumes are falling faster than prices. Sales over the three months to August were 14.6% lower than a year earlier, with capital cities hit harder than regional markets.
At the same time, total listings reached 139,167 over the past four weeks, 18.1% more than a year ago. Brisbane and Perth each recorded annual rises of more than 50%, and Adelaide more than 40%. New listings were 3.1% lower nationally, and well down in Sydney and Melbourne, where HTW suggests weaker conditions are prompting some vendors to hold back.
Kusher expects time on market to keep lengthening as stock stays high and sales stay low.
National dwelling values fell 3.1% over the three months to August. The falls were steeper in the capitals (3.7%) than in regional markets (1.2%), and Darwin was the only capital to avoid a decline.
The report links the sharper decline to the May 2026 federal budget's tax changes and the prospect of higher borrowing costs.
HTW's report predates two developments. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.6% in its fourth rise of 2026 on 29 September. A day later, the Australian Bureau of Statistics' August inflation figures showed headline CPI climbing to 4%, up from the 3.5% HTW cited, with trimmed mean inflation steady at 3.6%.
Gross rental yields have lifted as values fall. The national figure reached 3.8% in August, its highest since September 2019, while annual rental growth eased to 5.7%, from 5.9% in July.
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