NAB has become the second major bank to raise fixed home loan rates in 2026, lifting them by up to 0.40 percentage points as lenders brace for a possible cash rate hike as early as February.
It’s the second time NAB has hiked fixed rates in six weeks and follows a round of fixed rate increases from CBA last Thursday.
The latest fixed-rate hikes follow RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s December warning that another move was “on the cards”, after she last raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% in November 2023 amid concerns inflation was “still too high”.
NAB’s lowest owner-occupier fixed rates now start from:
Following NAB’s move, ANZ now has the sharpest two-year fixed rate among the big four, at 5.44% for owner-occupiers.
The majors’ lowest fixed rates are:
Canstar.com.au tracking shows 54 lenders have hiked at least one fixed rate since the last RBA cash rate decision on 9 December, and ultra‑low fixed offers are quickly disappearing. There are now just 12 lenders with fixed rates below 5%, down from 38 two months ago.
“Fixed rates continue to steadily march north with NAB the latest big bank to hike rates, this time by up to 0.4 percentage points,” Canstar.com.au data insights director Sally Tindall said.
“When the RBA Governor says a cash rate hike is a live option, banks take notice, and so it’s no surprise to see 54 of the lenders on Canstar have hiked at least one fixed rate since the last RBA board meeting, including all of the majors.
“Fixed rates are surging out of the 4’s, and well into the 5’s and 6’s. As a result, there are now just 12 lenders offering a fixed rate under 5% – a significant retreat from the 38 recorded two months ago.”
Tindall says the repricing is a clear sign banks are positioning for a higher cash rate in 2026.
“While the majority of borrowers are on a variable rate and intend on sticking with this strategy, the mass migration of fixed rates is a pre-emptive move by the banks to counter a higher cash rate in 2026. This is yet another sign borrowers need to start getting prepared.
“A rate hike in 2026 is not a foregone conclusion, but yesterday’s ABS Labour Force data certainly isn’t standing in the central bank’s way. The bottom line is, Australia still has an inflation problem, four long years into this battle.”
Tindall said next Wednesday’s quarterly inflation figures would be critical for the board’s decision, adding that clear progress toward the 2.5% midpoint could help stave off a February hike, but if inflation appeared stalled or rising, a rate increase would be likely.
Canstar.com.au data shows the lowest fixed owner-occupier rates on its database are currently:
For brokers, Tindall’s message is that any remaining sub‑5% fixed offers should now be treated as time‑sensitive talking points in client conversations.
“For those still hoping to fix under 5%, know you could be on borrowed time. Fixed rates under 5% could be relegated to the past within weeks,” she said.
“If you are thinking about fixing, know the window is closing, but don’t cut corners in your due diligence. Fixed rates come with plenty of extra rules and caveats, such as caps on extra repayments, often no access to an offset account and break fees if you want to get out early. These are all things you’ll need to weigh up before you lock in.”
For mortgage professionals, that means clearly explaining caps on extra repayments, the lack of offsets on many fixed loans, and how break costs could affect clients who refinance or sell early.
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